How populists are attacking Lithuania's pro-Ukrainian course and what to do to stop them

Lithuania has found itself in a state of permanent political crisis in recent months. There are several challenges: the resignation of Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas, a reformatting of the coalition; the risk that populists may gain control over the strategically important Ministry of Energy; scandals around the Ministry of Culture and the resignation of the defence minister.

But most importantly, the current crisis is leading to an increase in the political influence of a relatively small group of populist politicians who advocate reducing support for Ukraine.

Lithuanian political scientist and commentator Vytautas Bruveris explained to European Pravda whether Lithuania might change its foreign policy course and why the current crisis became possible in the first place. Read all his answers in the article Ukrainians believe Lithuania would never follow Slovakia’s path. But that’s not true.

The current political situation in Lithuania can indeed be described as a political crisis and it is deepening. In other words, things are only going to get worse.

The main cause of this crisis is the country’s second most influential political force (which can hardly be called a proper party, as it is essentially a one-man project) – Dawn of Nemunas.

This political project behaves very aggressively, yet at the same time is gradually expanding its influence. It is now torpedoing the key directions of Lithuania’s foreign policy.

What does this mean? The leader of this political movement, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, participated in the presidential elections and already then began breaking all possible taboos, promoting openly pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian, anti-Western, anti-EU and anti-American narratives, along with antisemitic ideas.

It is worth noting that Ukraine tends to have an idealised image of Lithuania as the most pro-Ukrainian, staunchly pro-Western country where developments similar to those in Hungary or Slovakia would be unthinkable.

But in reality, such processes are entirely possible in Lithuania. After all, the country has always had a segment of the electorate that could be described as "pro-Russian to varying degrees."

This "soft pro-Russian" electorate has always existed, but now it is experiencing a real renaissance.

At present, Dawn of Nemunas is part of the ruling coalition and more than that, it is the second most influential party in it. Using this leverage, they have become increasingly aggressive in attacking ministers they dislike.

Overall, after the coalition reshuffle in 2025, populist pressure on the government has only intensified.

The coalition also includes the Union of Greens and Farmers, a left-leaning party that counts among its members populist politicians ideologically similar to The Dawn of the Neman.

In addition, along with the Green Farmers, a small but openly pro-Putin party, Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania, has joined the coalition.

The Social Democrats could have easily formed a minority government on their own and governed with the support of other political forces. But they preferred an alliance with the populists.

As a result, Lithuania is slowly but steadily drifting toward the political trajectory of Hungary and Slovakia.

While support for Ukraine formally remains in place, Lithuania’s pro-Ukrainian course is becoming increasingly hollow and declarative. And that is the worst possible outcome.

The president could have prevented this situation. He could have insisted that Dawn of Nemunas be isolated rather than invited into the coalition.

However, there is one key nuance: President Gitanas Nausėda despises the conservatives, especially their former leader and ex-foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. That’s why he wanted to form a coalition as quickly as possible, even if it meant including Dawn of Nemunas just to ensure that the conservatives would have no influence on the new government.

And now, he simply refuses to admit that this was a mistake.

According to Bruveris, snap elections might be the only way out of the crisis.