How and why "Ukraine’s friend" Andrzej Duda might join Poland’s far right

Poland is steadily approaching its presidential election, scheduled for 18 May.

And the closer the date comes, the more unpredictable the post-election political landscape appears. At the center of this shifting picture, somewhat unexpectedly, is President Andrzej Duda.

It is highly likely that Duda, one of Poland’s most pro-Ukrainian politicians, could form a political alliance with the openly anti-Ukrainian far-right party Confederation.

Read more about the political dynamics in Poland in the article by by Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in political science and international expert – An Alliance with Ukraine-Haters: Will Poland’s President Side with Confederation?

Polish political commentators have noted a pattern. Although Duda publicly claims neutrality in the presidential race (declining to support Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the ruling Law and Justice party, PiS), he has held frequent meetings with Sławomir Mentzen, Confederation’s presidential candidate.

According to leaks, the two politicians held talks in mid-March, reportedly discussing the potential candidacy of top Duda administration officials Marcin Mastalerek and Łukasz Rzepecki on Confederation’s electoral lists.

Confederation politicians privately admit a shortage of experienced personnel and see value in attracting people from Duda’s circle, especially those unlikely to find a place in PiS after his term ends and who agree with some of the party’s principles.

But many doubt these talks were only about Duda’s aides. At just 52, Duda is far from political retirement, and speculation is growing that he is preparing his own next move.

This potential alliance is especially striking given Confederation’s platform, which includes nationalism, calls for Polish military independence, opposition to aiding Ukraine, and resistance to EU integration.

Such collaboration seems at odds with Duda’s image as a moderate and sincere supporter of Ukraine.

However, Duda could become a unifying figure for Poland’s right-wing electorate. If Confederation’s candidate overtakes PiS’s, Duda could help consolidate the broader conservative base. He enjoys trust among voters and has a relatively low disapproval rating.

He also has the option of launching his own political project aimed at capturing a significant share of PiS’s electorate. Given the possibility of a future Sejm coalition between PiS and Confederation, Duda’s project could hold the "golden share" – a decisive influence on forming a coalition government. He might even be a compromise prime ministerial candidate acceptable to both parties.

So far, Duda has not revealed his exact plans. But it’s clear he is not planning to leave politics.

For Ukraine, this is likely good news. Duda has consistently proven himself a loyal friend and ally.

But the big question remains: would that still hold if he allies with the openly anti-Ukrainian Confederation?

Unfortunately, no clear answer exists – yet.