How the US is losing leadership and whether the EU can take its place

With the US having chosen to retreat from its global role, it will gradually lose much of the power and influence that it now takes for granted.

To be sure, America’s power and influence has already waned. For decades after World War II, the US could shape the global system to serve its own purposes; and during the brief "unipolar" moment that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, its status was unrivaled.

Read more about how Donald Trump is weakening the United States, the growing vacuum in the global order, and the opportunity for the European Union, in the column by former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt: Goodbye, America! Can the EU replace the US on the global stage?

The author notes that this is the context in which President Donald Trump has hastened America’s retreat. While no one is surprised to see an "America First" administration ditching global responsibilities, the sheer pace of the change has been remarkable. Already, a growing void is opening up within the world order.

Carl Bildt predicts that America’s role in the global economy will decline as trading with it (let alone trusting it) becomes more difficult.

"China is the top trading partner to around 120 countries, and the EU to around 80, whereas America is number one for only 20 or so countries. And now that Trump has imposed or threatened sweeping tariffs against friends and foes alike, the US position is bound to decline further," warns the former Swedish prime minister.

According to him, America’s absence will be even more obvious in the realm of multinational cooperation – both within and outside the United Nations system.

The former Swedish premier notes that while Trump issues threats to take over the Panama Canal, Canada, and Greenland, US diplomacy is in retreat more broadly.

Administration officials claim that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is "Joe Biden’s war," and they initially responded to the dangerous flare-up between India and Pakistan by declaring it none of America’s business.

The author also recalls Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East was almost exclusively about securing business, investment, and arms deals.

"Beyond making bizarre statements about turning Gaza into a resort, he has basically ignored the Israeli-Palestinian question, leaving Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu free to pursue whatever policy he wants," writes Carl Bildt.

He believes the US retreat is underway, and until other responsible actors assume some of the roles it played, some state and nonstate actors will exploit the situation for their own advantage, thus creating more global instability.

"The EU is an obvious candidate to fill the void left by the US. It has a unique opportunity to strengthen its own position in what will be a less US-centric trading system. For example, linking up with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership could pay major dividends, as would a new trade agreement with India," the former Swedish premier argues.

China, for its part, will probably step up more within the UN system, warns the former Swedish government head.

That is why he considers it will matter immensely how the Sino-European relationship evolves.

"Had Chinese President Xi Jinping not lent political and economic support to Russia these past three years, the path forward would be clearer. But though the situation is complicated, China could still change course if it wanted to," the author writes.

Another big unknown is how NATO will adapt as US military resources return home from Europe and the Middle East (or are shifted toward East Asia).