Why the new EU trade rules are disadvantageous for Ukraine and how long they will last

On 5 June, that is, already next week – the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) regime established three years ago by the European Union for Ukrainian goods will expire. Yet, just 10 days before that date, Ukrainian exporters and their European partners still don’t know what the trade terms between Ukraine and the EU will be.

Read more about what’s going on, what compromise has been reached, and how the trade rules are expected to change in the article by Yurii Panchenko and Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editors: "New trade terms with the EU: why Brussels is ‘punishing’ Ukraine and what Kyiv is negotiating." 

Mass farmer protests – including those at the Polish-Ukrainian border – have created a broad coalition against extending trade preferences for Ukraine.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen personally promised last year that this would be the last one-year extension of the unilateral trade preferences (ATM).

However, reaching an agreement on a new bilateral trade regime turned out to be too difficult for Brussels.

Even though there’s a written commitment from last year for the European Commission to start such negotiations "immediately," Brussels has so far refused to launch talks with Ukraine on a new trade regime.

The reason for this pause is clear: the Polish presidential elections, where farmers are a major political force.

The second round of Poland’s elections will be held on Sunday, 1 June. So it’s already clear that Kyiv and Brussels will not have time to conduct meaningful trade talks before the current ATM expires.

Anticipating this "D-Day," Ukrainian diplomats and government officials have spent months urging the EU to introduce a transitional regime starting 6 June, while negotiations on a new trade framework continue.

On Thursday, 22 May, the European Commission officially acknowledged – for the first time – its readiness to implement a temporary transitional trade regime after 5 June, for the duration of negotiations on a new agreement.

However, the Commission did not specify what exactly this transitional regime would look like.

It has now become clear that the content of this transitional period does not meet Ukraine’s expectations.

In fact, the conditions Brussels is now introducing are not preferential at all.

In essence, this means a return to the Association Agreement (AA), which is clearly disadvantageous for Ukraine – although, for now, only temporarily (though even that isn’t guaranteed).

At the same time, both sides have made a political commitment to agree on new trade parameters as soon as possible – ideally by the end of July 2025.

If the transitional period lasts significantly longer than a couple of months, it will become a serious problem for Ukrainian farmers.

Thus, Kyiv may be forced to accept less ambitious, but faster agreements.

The core issue for Ukraine is that its imports have been unfairly demonised in the EU.

In reality, even the current ATM regime benefits the EU as much as Ukraine, as shown by EU trade statistics. Interestingly, the EU’s trade balance actually improved in recent years – precisely during the ATM period.

Fortunately, the European Commission is on Ukraine’s side. It is less influenced by national election campaigns and understands the real nature of bilateral trade.

This offers cautious hope for success – but only cautious.