Why the Armenian authorities went into sharp conflict with church and what Russia has to do with it

On 25 June, there were high-profile arrests in Armenia. The authorities announced the uncovering of a network that was preparing a "violent seizure of power."

Read more about whether there are indeed grounds to talk about exposing a Russian-prepared coup, or if this is political infighting, in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Church-Russian conspiracy: what’s behind the high-profile political arrests in Armenia. 

On Wednesday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wrote on Facebook that law enforcement had foiled a large-scale and sinister plan by a "criminal oligarchic clergy" to destabilise the Republic of Armenia and seize power.

Soon after, the Civic news outlet published the alleged coup plan.

According to the plan, the coup was being prepared by the opposition movement Sacred Struggle, which until now had fought the government through legal means, primarily by organising large protest rallies.

The planned date for the coup was 21 September, Armenia’s Independence Day.

The plan included a point about possibly organising "a gathering of all key actors in a neutral country with representatives from the Russian side."

Authorities announced the arrest of 14 people, including Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, former head of the Tavush Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church, arguably one of Pashinyan’s most powerful opponents.

The Sacred Struggle movement had publicly declared its intentions to overthrow the government by force. So why did the Armenian authorities only now "find the time" to act?

One possible explanation is that the government wasn’t confident in the loyalty of its security services.

A week before these arrests, on 18 June, Armenian authorities detained Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian businessman of Armenian origin who controls the operator of Armenia’s national power grid, who also has political ambitions.

Investigators believe that Karapetyan’s control over Armenia’s electricity network gave him the ability to destabilise the country. The government promptly announced the introduction of temporary management of the company, and on 26 June, Prime Minister Pashinyan declared that the government had decided to nationalise it.

Armenian political analyst Mikael Zolyan points out that on the same day Karapetyan was arrested, the head of the National Security Service, Armen Abazyan, was dismissed, allegedly for refusing to arrest the Russian oligarch.

"It’s possible that this move was a turning point. Pashinyan now feels confident in the loyalty of the security services and can act much more decisively," the analyst suggests.

In recent months, the relationship between Armenia’s prime minister and the Armenian Apostolic Church has escalated into an all-out conflict. The church leadership is currently the most powerful critic of the government and of Pashinyan personally, with calls for a change of power being made from the pulpit.

Are these events connected to the parliamentary elections expected in about a year?

On one hand, the ruling party is heading into the elections with rather low ratings. On the other hand, the opposition’s ratings are even lower.

Political analyst Mikael Zolyan points out that the connection between those recently arrested and Russia can be considered proven with a high degree of certainty. He suggests that the escalation may not have purely domestic Armenian causes, but could be part of efforts to counter Moscow’s advances.

The prospect of Donald Trump’s victory and talk of a quick end to the war in Ukraine, which could free up Russian resources, has made South Caucasus countries nervous and prompted them to make overtures toward Russia. It’s therefore unsurprising that Pashinyan even flew to Moscow for the 9 May Victory Day parade.

However, as it becomes more apparent that Trump’s peace plan is failing, the situation is changing once again.