Can American public opinion influence Donald Trump's course?

Since the start of his second presidential term, Donald Trump has been actively shaping the image not just of a global leader, but of the architect of a new political world order, one who is unafraid to break the rules.

In this architecture, there is no place for dependence on others or for lengthy multilateral negotiations. He prefers quick decisions in which America alone sets the line.

Trump’s opportunities are limited first and foremost by American public opinion, especially the backing of Republican voters.

Read more about how Donald Trump is reshaping US policy and how American public opinion factors into it in the article by Svitlana Kovalchuk, YES Executive Director – Dictatorship of the minority: can polling influence Donald Trump's course? 

Trump has made his tariff programme and the tax-and-budget law, the One Big Beautiful Bill, central elements of his domestic agenda. Both drew more criticism than support.

At the same time, nearly half of Republicans (44%) see strategic value in them as tools to contain China and bring jobs back home.

This approach fits into the America First ideology, appealing to the protection of domestic industries.

For Trump, tariffs are not just an economic instrument but a political message: a "visible" protection of jobs in the industrial states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, which decide election outcomes.

Such policies bring short-term political dividends but may undermine America’s long-term competitiveness.

In foreign policy, Trump is moving toward unilateral decisions.

Overall, US foreign policy under Trump is shifting back toward "hard power" as a tool of negotiation and influence, with a focus on deals in which Washington secures tangible benefits.

Among the changes is a radically different tone with old allies, creating tension in transatlantic relations, as well as a willingness to "step into" new regions where American influence had been limited (for instance, greater activity in the South Caucasus).

In Russia’s war against Ukraine, Trump is trying to position himself as the architect of a quick peace.

Yet polling shows that about half of Americans still believe supporting Ukraine is Washington’s duty.

Trump is thus forced to take public opinion into account. He can project the image of a peacemaker, but he lacks room for excessive compromises with Moscow.

Still, one should not overestimate the influence of polling on a US president’s actions.

For Trump, only the views of the Republican Party’s traditional electorate truly matter.

And even more than that – it is not the entire Republican base but the MAGA core of his most loyal voters that carries weight.

Trump’s politics are not based on consensus but on mobilising a loyal nucleus.

The strategy is simple: not to convince everyone, but to turn a minority into a majority.

For the Republican Party, however, such a strategy risks losing centrist voters and gradually transforming into a minority party with a radicalised base. It also fuels social polarisation and, in the long term, certainly does not work to America’s advantage.

But as long as this strategy can secure Trump enough support for further victories, all other arguments become secondary.