What surprises could the Dutch elections bring and what should Ukraine expect?
The previous elections in the Netherlands took place in November 2023. However, the coalition government led by Dick Schoof lasted less than a year. On 3 June, the coalition collapsed, triggering snap elections.
These elections, scheduled for 29 October, will determine the future political trajectory of the country.
And the changes could be profound.
Read more about how the Netherlands reached this point, who stands a chance to form the next government and what it could mean for Ukraine in the article by Daria Meshcheriakova, a European Pravda journalist: Orbán’s friend vs. Ukraine’s allies: how snap elections could change the Netherlands’ course.
According to the latest Ipsos I&O poll, three political forces are now neck and neck for the top spot: the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Geert Wilders, the Labour–Green Alliance (GroenLinks-PvdA), andthe centrist liberal party D66. Each is projected to win 23 seats in the 150-member lower house of parliament.
(These figures come from the newest poll released last night and differ slightly from those cited in the original European Pravda article published at 3:00 p.m. on 28 October, which used earlier data.)
The same forecast gives the centrist Christian Democrats (CDA) 19 seats, one fewer than in the previous poll, the center-right VVD of former PM Mark Rutte 17 seats and the far-right JA21 11 seats.
Interestingly, up to 80% of voters remain undecided, making the outcome completely unpredictable. No analyst can yet say what the next coalition might look like.
The far-right politician and anti-Islam campaigner Geert Wilders has dominated Dutch politics since his party’s surprise victory in 2023. His campaign then focused on a hardline anti-migration message, which brought him first place.
However, Wilders later triggered the collapse of the government by withdrawing from the four-party coalition over disagreements on how to implement his plan for stricter migration controls.
Ahead of the 2025 elections, his campaign message has grown even more radical, calling for a "total halt to refugee admissions."
The coalition’s collapse was driven by disputes over migration policy – a divisive issue in Dutch society. The government sought to restrict migrant inflows while simultaneously grappling with a labor shortage.
This paradox, a need for workers but resistance to "inviting the whole world," remains central to the current campaign.
Traditionally calm, this Dutch election season has turned into a battlefield of sharp personal clashes.
Adding to the tension, this is the first election in Dutch history where artificial intelligence and deepfakes have posed a tangible threat to the democratic process.
A warning from the Dutch Data Protection Authority urged citizens not to use chatbots for voting advice after tests showed AI tools gave distorted, polarised views of the political landscape, often ignoring centrist parties entirely.
Despite Europe’s growing war fatigue, support for Ukraine remains strong among the Dutch public. Almost all major political forces continue to back Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.
Thus, even a renewed victory for Wilders is unlikely to reverse the Netherlands’ foreign policy orientation.
However, another risk looms. Parliamentary fragmentation and efforts to form a government without Wilders could lead to a prolonged political crisis. In that case, the Netherlands might become preoccupied with its own internal issues, paying less attention to NATO’s eastern flank.