How the Netherlands formed a new coalition and what risks this poses for Ukraine

When the social-liberal party D66 unexpectedly won the snap elections in the Netherlands, there was a collective sigh of relief, especially in Ukraine.

However, it is already clear that dealing with the new government will not be easy.

Quite unusually for Dutch political tradition, it will be a minority government, with all the risks that entails.

Read more about the new Dutch government in the article by Daria Meshcheriakova, a European Pravda journalist: Friendly to Ukraine, but unstable: what we know about the future government of the Netherlands. 

The new coalition in the Netherlands was formed by the election winner, the liberal D66 party, the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA).

This in itself is rather untypical: traditionally, coalition agreements in the Netherlands bring together a much larger number of political forces.

Taken together, the new coalition holds only 66 seats in the House of Representatives – ten short of the minimum needed to pass legislation. In the Senate, the upper chamber of parliament, the shortfall is even greater: the government lacks 16 votes.

This means that no decision taken by the new government is guaranteed to have sufficient parliamentary support.

The key question now is how the government will be able to pass laws, budgets, and spending cuts in a deeply polarised parliament that includes 15 parties. According to participants in the coalition talks, there are two possible scenarios.

The first is ad hoc alliances. For example, climate initiatives could be negotiated with the left-green bloc GroenLinks-PvdA, while tougher migration measures could be pushed through with the support of BBB, JA21 or PVV.

The second option is to seek a more stable group of opposition parties willing to provide ongoing, structural support to the government.

At present, all members of the new coalition are leaning toward the first option.

Critics warn that under such conditions, smaller parties could gain disproportionately large influence over government decision-making.

As a result, the policy-making process is likely to slow down, and the necessary compromises may make the government’s course less predictable.

The constant search for compromises could significantly limit the new government’s ability to pursue an independent policy, thereby weakening the Netherlands’ voice on the international stage.

The greatest risk when it comes to Dutch support for Ukraine remains political instability.