EU concerned that pressuring Orbán during elections in Hungary may backfire

The EU is looking for a way out of the Hungarian blockade of a €90 billion loan for Ukraine but concerns have been raised that putting pressure on Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during the election campaign "might not be the smartest move".

As reported by Politico, Budapest is trying to turn the loan for Ukraine and broader confrontation with the EU into a political trap for the Hungarian opposition ahead of parliamentary elections on 12 April. Orbán is acting obstructively in Europe "with the elections in mind", one EU official told Politico on condition of anonymity.

Talks on the loan are continuing both in the European Commission and between capitals and will pick up again today Wednesday 25 February with another meeting of EU ambassadors. The path ahead is uncertain.

"There is the pipeline, the elections in Hungary and Ukraine's urgent need for the loan … it's difficult to see at this stage where this is going," one EU diplomat told Politico. Hungary "has become even more unpredictable than usual", said another diplomat.

EU diplomats and officials note that, regardless of his public stance, Orbán rarely backs out of a final deal once it is made. In a letter to European Council President António Costa earlier this week, he even described himself as "one of the most disciplined and consistent members of the European Council". Many in Brussels acknowledge there is some truth to this, although it is not yet known whether Orbán will stick to the same rules as the elections approach and the threat to his political survival grows.

The EU executive and Costa, tasked with persuading Orbán, have limited room for out-of-the-box thinking. "Pushing him while he's campaigning might not be the smartest move," an unnamed diplomat said.

The EU can always apply Article 7, which enables the suspension of voting rights of a member state and bypass Hungary's opposition on Ukraine. But this could play into Orbán's pre-election rhetoric.

Another option could be suspending EU funding or infringement procedures. However, this will take time that Ukraine does not have.

On 24 February, the Council of the EU adopted two documents for a €90 billion loan for Ukraine but Hungary is blocking the third one.

Hungary is threatening to block the €90 billion loan for Ukraine until Kyiv restores transit of Russian oil to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline.