How Trump uses separatists to pressure Canada and what may come of it

A recent Financial Times investigation has uncovered a series of secret contacts between Donald Trump’s team and representatives of the separatist movement in Canada’s Alberta province.

According to the FT, over the past nine months officials from US President Donald Trump’s administration have met privately in Washington at least three times with leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP).

Read more about how Trump is using separatist movements as a tool to pressure Canada and what may come of it in the article by Dmytro Sherengovsky of the Dnistryanskyi Center: The 'fractured Canada' scenario: what Trump gains from supporting separatists in the oil-rich province.

The Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) advocates for the secession of the oil-rich province from Canada. The group is seeking support in the United States, both political and financial, to achieve its goals.

In particular, in early 2026 an APP delegation reportedly made another visit to Washington to officially request a $500 billion credit line in the event that a referendum on Alberta’s independence is announced, FT sources claim. The idea was that such funds would financially "backstop" a new "Free Alberta" during the transitional period following independence.

The White House and the US State Department were forced to officialy confirm that such contacts had taken place, but they denied any commitments to the separatists, stressing that meetings with various civic groups and movements are standard practice.

Trump views Canada as part of the American sphere of influence, so should be no room for "independent agency" or external players.

In 2023, the Alberta Prosperity Project actively carried out propaganda efforts and released a "Roadmap for Sovereignty," outlining its plan of action from adopting provincial laws on a separate pension fund and police force to preparing a referendum on independence.

The key demand is that the federal government grant Alberta a special status similar to that of Quebec; otherwise, the province should leave Canada.

Despite the loud rhetoric of the separatists, the overwhelming majority of Alberta residents still do not wish to sever ties with Canada.

While APP is collecting signatures in favor of a referendum, opponents of secession have also become more active within Alberta itself.

Back in 2025, the Alberta Forever Canada initiative emerged and organised a counter-petition against provincial independence. This campaign gained significant traction: more than 438,000 Alberta residents signed a call to remain in Canada.

By comparison, to bring the issue of a referendum before the legislature, APP needs to collect approximately 177,000 signatures (10% of the province’s voters) within 120 days – roughly half as many.

In early January 2026, such a petition was officially registered, and the signature collection will continue until May. Given current polling, they are likely to secure the number of signatures required to announce a referendum.

And this is precisely where the Donald Trump factor could play the role of a "black swan". At the same time as revelations about secret negotiations with APP emerged, statements were made in the United States that separatists present as signs of support for their cause from an influential ally.

Such signals could sway some voters to think: if the US itself is on board, maybe it really is worth trying.

On the other hand, American interference could also serve as a vaccine against separatism. For many moderate Canadians, even those critical of Ottawa, the appearance of Donald Trump on the horizon as a potential "patron" of an independent Alberta is a reason for caution.

Despite a referendum that is likely to take place, the probability of actual independence remains quite low. Most Canadian commentators are openly sceptical.

Most likely, Trump’s game with Alberta's separatists has a pragmatic goal: to apply pressure on Ottawa wherever it is advantageous for Washington.