Will Orbán’s conspiracy with the Russians help him and what to expect from the elections in Hungary

This week began with several explosions in Hungary's public discourse, occurring one after another.

First, the outlet of the ruling political force Fidesz, Mandiner, released an audio recording of a conversation with journalist Szabolcs Panyi, in which he admits that he knew about the wiretapping of Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó by some foreign intelligence service and mentions one such conversation.

Later, the journalist published the content of a conversation between Minister Szijjártó and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in which they allegedly discussed interference in the Slovak elections.

Hungarian insiders say that Szijjártó is already preparing the groundwork for fleeing to Russia in case the regime loses.

But is Orbán’s regime ready to give up power even if it loses the election?

Read more about the reality of a change of power in Hungary in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor: Spy scandal and the dirtiest elections: how Orbán and Russia want to keep power in Hungary. 

The idea that Orbán’s government is a government of traitors working for Russia has entered the rhetoric of leaders of the opposition Tisza party, including Péter Magyar – a potential new prime minister of Hungary.

Ultimately, the story about collusion with the Russians has reached threatening proportions for Orbán.

But the strangest thing is that the Hungarian authorities do not deny cooperation with Russia and even take pride in it.

"I speak not only with Russia’s foreign minister but also with our American, Turkish, Israeli, Serbian and other partners before and after EU Council meetings," confirmed Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.

The fact that a group of Kremlin specialists in election interference has begun operating in Hungary has been publicly known for several weeks. One of the first to write about it was the already mentioned Szabolcs Panyi; this was also confirmed by Western media such as the Financial Times.

But will we see hard election rigging directed by the Russians?

The simple answer is no. Now that most polls suggest Orbán’s defeat, and his opponent promises criminal prosecution for those who break the law in favour of the current authorities, building infrastructure for total falsification is no longer possible.

However, certain manipulations with votes will occur. They are already being prepared.

A favourite mechanism is buying the votes of homeless people and the poor in working-class outskirts of cities in favour of single-mandate candidates; this scheme has also been used in Roma settlements.

In addition, the authorities used a special procedure allowing the allocation of mandates for national minorities to secure a mandate supposedly on behalf of Hungary’s Roma and it is already known that it will go to István Aba-Horváth, an open supporter of Orbán within the Roma community.

Until now, the Roma minority had never had a separate full mandate; it was more beneficial for the authorities to mobilise Roma votes for the general Fidesz list. Now this strategy has changed, and in recent days the number of Hungarian Roma submitting a special declaration, renouncing their right to vote for parties in order to create a "Roma voice" in parliament (in reality, a mandate purchased by Orbán), has been abnormally rising.

Could it happen that the Hungarian authorities simply refuse to leave?

There is no such danger. Moreover, this resignation could be safe.

Orbán has built a system that allows him to retain control over the country. Over 16 years, only officials loyal to the authorities were appointed to all key positions without exception.

Therefore, Péter Magyar is already building his campaign around the idea that he must not just win, but obtain a constitutional majority.

And finally, it still remains unclear whether Orbán will actually lose at all.