Why EU has once again become attractive to Iceland and what Trump has to do with it

A country that once walked away from the path to EU accession could, in the coming years, re-emerge as the European Union’s newest member.

This is about Iceland, whose Prime Minister, Kristrún Mjöll Frostadóttir, has officially confirmed plans to hold a referendum on resuming EU membership negotiations.

The very fact that such a vote is being prepared suggests that Iceland is increasingly reluctant to remain alone in the Arctic region, where the security situation is deteriorating. If the outcome is positive, the prospect of this remote island joining the EU would become quite real, but not guaranteed.

Read more about the shift in Icelandic public sentiment in the article by Khrystyna Bondarieva, a European Pravda journalist: Escape from Trump: why Iceland may resume its path towards EU and what could stand in the way.

Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir announced plans for a new referendum in Warsaw, on her way back from Kyiv.

However, she was cautious, making it clear that although Iceland shares European values, it is not prepared to buy a ticket to the EU "at any price".

So what underlies Iceland’s renewed interest in EU membership?

First, security concerns. Iceland is an Arctic country, and the Arctic is rapidly becoming an arena of competition among Russia, China and Western states. Military activity in the region has increased in recent years.

Although Iceland has been a member of NATO since 1949, it has no standing army, and its security is based on a 1951 defence agreement with the United States.

Today, however, the predictability of the United States as a security guarantor is increasingly being questioned. Meanwhile, within the European Union, security is no longer viewed as a byproduct of economic integration, but as a condition for the survival and stability of its member states.

In addition to security factors, there are also several economic arguments in favour of membership, despite Iceland’s status as one of the world’s wealthiest countries (ranking fifth in GDP per capita).

Nevertheless, the road to a "yes" vote in a referendum is unlikely to be easy.

The main obstacle remains fisheries. The memory of the Cod Wars with the United Kingdom is still vivid, and fears of European fishing quotas persist.

Iceland first applied for EU membership in 2009, and official negotiations began the following year. The context is important: this came after the 2008 financial crisis, which led to the collapse of the country’s three largest banks.

For the then center-left government, EU and eurozone membership appeared to be a "lifeline" capable of ensuring financial stability.

However, due to a combination of factors, negotiations were suspended in 2013. By that point, 27 out of 33 negotiating chapters had been opened, and 11 had been provisionally closed.

The two most difficult chapters, agriculture and fisheries, which continue to generate the greatest concern within Icelandic society, were never even brought to the negotiating table.

But now the United Kingdom is no longer in the EU. Previously, London had been Reykjavík’s main opponent on fisheries issues, and a dispute over mackerel catches nearly led to EU trade sanctions against the island.

The position of Iceland’s agricultural sector, as well as questions of energy autonomy, also pose serious challenges.

Still, there is a considerable likelihood that a majority of Icelanders may agree to resume negotiations if only to see what kind of deal the government could ultimately secure with the EU.

If Icelanders do decide to say "yes" in the August referendum, the technical side of negotiations could move quickly. However, optimism about a swift accession timeline would be premature.