How Trump's war against Iran is changing the world and what Ukraine should expect

The current military operation by the United States and Israel against Iran is not another simple escalation in the Middle East.

It may mark the beginning of a new phase of global confrontation, in which major powers increasingly use force to resolve strategic problems that they previously tried to settle through diplomacy.

Read more about the possible consequences of this war, including for Ukraine, in the article by political science PhD and Executive Director of YES, Svitlana Kovalchuk: A new front of the global conflict: how the war with Iran affected Ukraine, Europe and US.

The formal reason for the US strikes on Iran was Iran’s missile and nuclear programme.

However, the question arises whether Iran’s nuclear potential can really be destroyed by air strikes alone.

No matter how impressive satellite images of damage to infrastructure at the underground uranium enrichment facility in Natanz – one of the key elements of Iran’s nuclear programme – may look, it is worth recalling that last year’s attempt to eliminate the nuclear threat from Iran proved unsuccessful.

However, the real logic of the military actions is much broader.

It is about an attempt to change the balance of power in the region, weaken Iran’s military potential, and, most importantly, demonstrate the readiness of the United States and its allies to act by force when diplomatic mechanisms no longer work.

Thus, the events surrounding Iran are not merely a regional crisis.

They reflect a broader transformation of the international system in which conflicts between states are once again becoming a central instrument of geopolitics.

The Middle East is increasingly becoming an arena of rivalry between major powers, where the United States seeks to contain Iran and its allies, while China and, to some extent, Russia aim to limit American influence in the region.

The war against Iran quickly became the subject of political disputes in the United States.

Republicans consider the operation limited and short-term. Democrats warn that the US may find itself involved in yet another long war in the Middle East.

Additional tension is created by the inconsistent communication of the US administration regarding the operation.

The operation against Iran has caused tension not only between the United States and its adversaries but also within the Western camp itself. Some European allies have been unwilling to support American actions unconditionally, which has led to open disputes with the administration of Donald Trump.

The sharpest conflict emerged between Washington and Madrid.

Tensions have even appeared in relations with the United Kingdom.

For Ukraine, this escalation has several dimensions.

First, Iran is one of Russia’s key military partners. Weakening Iran’s military capabilities could potentially reduce Tehran’s ability to support Moscow.

Likewise, the refusal to confront the United States and rescue the Iranian regime has had a highly negative impact on Russia’s position in the Global South.

Second, the conflict affects global oil and gas prices. Rising energy prices traditionally strengthen Russia’s financial capabilities.

Third, the new crisis creates the risk of diverting Western attention – and military support – away from Ukraine.

Thus, the end of hostilities against Iran in the coming weeks could have a rather positive effect for Ukraine.

However, a prolonged war in the Middle East would increase long-term risks for Kyiv.