How Orbán’s defeat hit Fico and what is going to happen with aid to Ukraine

The winner of Hungary’s parliamentary elections and future prime minister, Péter Magyar, has announced that he will not block the €90-billion EU loan for Ukraine.

But can we already speak about resolving this problem? Earlier, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that, in the event of Viktor Orbán’s defeat, he would be ready to continue blocking this loan.

Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute for Public Affairs, Grigorij Mesežnikov, explained how likely such a scenario is and how Orbán’s defeat will affect the policies of other "friends of Putin". Read more in the article: Fico without his main ally: how Orbán’s defeat will affect Slovakia.

Indeed, Robert Fico suggested that he could block the loan for Ukraine following Orbán. In my view, this was simply a huge mistake, because, first of all, Slovakia is not as strong a state as Hungary.

And secondly, how can one announce in advance steps that, if implemented, would further damage both Fico’s personal image and Slovakia’s reputation?

Slovakia depends on the European Union, since 80% of all public investment comes to the country from EU funds. Would Fico really dare, in such a situation, to go against the entire EU?

He could afford such a policy only by acting in tandem with Viktor Orbán. I am also convinced that Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš will not become a replacement for Orbán for Fico.

Thus, the defeat of the Hungarian prime minister clearly weakened Fico.

Perhaps he will initially try to block the loan or sanctions, but only to save face.

Then he will quickly announce that the EU has taken his demands into account and abandon the blockade.

Undoubtedly, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico does not like Ukraine to put it very mildly.

There is the echo of the gas wars between Ukraine and Russia, but perhaps even more important is that Fico simply envies Zelenskyy.

The Ukrainian president is popular in Europe, and many people in Slovakia like him too, possibly more than they like Fico.

In addition, the Slovak prime minister clearly has sympathy for Russia and a leaning towards authoritarian regimes.

Like Orbán, Robert Fico used anti-Ukrainian narratives in his election campaigns.

However, anti-Ukrainian statements were never the only narrative in his campaigns, nor even the strongest one. Moreover, it is hard to imagine that in Slovakia anyone would seriously accept a campaign like the one Orbán conducted.

If Fico had run such a campaign, he would have lost by a landslide – people would simply stop considering him a reasonable person.

Another difference is that Orbán had the support of Donald Trump, whereas Fico failed to establish relations with the American president, and their meeting ended in scandal.

Robert Fico is already, in essence, a "lame duck". The rating of his party Smer, which rose to 25% after the assassination attempt on Fico, quickly fell and now remains in the 17–19% range.

Most importantly, for several years in a row, all opinion polls have shown that the opposition is set to win the next elections confidently. Sometimes its combined result comes close to a constitutional majority.

However, there is a problem. The Slovak opposition finds it difficult to reach agreements because of serious ideological differences.

I think they will still manage to agree, but the coalition will be very unstable.

I do not rule out that Orbán’s defeat will give Fico the opportunity to play the "Hungarian card". There are strong anti-Hungarian sentiments in Slovakia, and now Fico may try to exploit them.

Especially since the winner of the Hungarian elections, Péter Magyar, has criticised the recent Slovak law banning criticism of the Beneš decrees.