Who could come to power in Bulgaria and why this is dangerous for Ukraine

On 19 April, snap parliamentary elections are set to be held in Bulgaria, and their outcome could lead to a pro-Russian shift that would be extremely dangerous for Ukraine.

The clear favourite in these elections is the new party Progressive Bulgaria, created by former president Rumen Radev. Many political analysts predict that he may become the Kremlin’s new bet in the struggle for influence in Bulgaria.

Read more in the article by Serhii Herasymchuk of the Ukrainian Prism think-tank who spoke to European Pravda about political trends in Bulgaria: The Kremlin’s new favourite and the agreement with Ukraine: key points on the Bulgarian elections.

The recent visit to Ukraine by Bulgarian Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov produced a sensation, which led to signing a security agreement with Ukraine.

It triggered a real scandal in the Bulgarian parliament, initiated by openly pro-Russian forces.

However, they were also supported by GERB, the party of former prime minister Boyko Borissov.

I assume the election campaign played a role here.

Borissov realised that his opponents would try to mobilise voters, likely using arguments similar to those currently seen in Hungary’s election campaign.

In particular, the claim that signing such an agreement would drag Bulgaria into the war – something that frightens the average voter. To avoid losing those votes, Borissov joined critics of the agreement with Ukraine.

However, I do not believe that defence cooperation between the countries will stop, regardless of the results of the 19 April elections.

Another issue is that Ukraine is becoming part of Bulgaria’s electoral process – as an object used by various political forces for their own interests. And this is a long-term process, because the 19 April elections are only the beginning.

Presidential elections are also scheduled in Bulgaria this autumn, so the Ukraine issue is likely to remain on the agenda until then.

The current parliamentary elections are already being described as special, as an extremely powerful player has entered the race. This refers to former president Rumen Radev, who recently resigned specifically to take part in these elections.

This move is perceived as a replacement on the pro-Russian flank. Until now, the role of "Russia’s main friend" was held by Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the Revival party, but he is becoming increasingly toxic for Bulgarian voters.

As for Radev, it is obvious that his views are more pro-Russian than pro-European and at the same time openly anti-Ukrainian.

Two political forces can be considered Radev’s opponents.

According to current estimates, around 30% of Bulgarian voters may support Radev’s party, about 20% may vote for GERB and around 10% for the bloc of two pro-European parties – We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB).

It is also quite likely that the Socialists, the DPS party of Delyan Peevski and possibly Revival will enter the new parliament.

Under such circumstances, forming a coalition will be very difficult.

This is negative in one sense, since there is little reason to expect a pro-European coalition.

But on the other hand, there is also little reason to expect a stable pro-Russian coalition.

Therefore, the scenario already familiar for Bulgaria is likely – a move towards new snap parliamentary elections.

Another danger for Ukraine is the emerging trend of a belt of countries around it that block European funding for Ukraine, refuse further support and call for easing sanctions against Russia.

Potentially, Bulgaria could join Hungary and Slovakia in this role.