Why Poland's largest opposition party is splitting and the risks this creates

A conflict within Poland’s largest opposition party, "Law and Justice" (PiS), had been brewing for a long time. The confrontation is unfolding between the group around Przemysław Czarnek, selected by the party as its candidate for prime minister (the "butter faction") and the group aligned with former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (unofficially known as the "scouts").

Czarnek’s camp enjoys the support of party leader Jarosław Kaczyński. However, even that was not enough for the "butter faction" to secure victory.

The expected removal of Mateusz Morawiecki from leadership positions in the party never happened – something already being described as a personal defeat for Kaczyński.

Read more about the confrontation and its possible consequences, including for Ukraine, in the article by international affairs expert Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi: Kaczyński is losing strength: how Poland’s main opposition party PiS ended up on the brink of a split. 

According to Polish experts, the decision by the leadership of "Law and Justice" to bet on Przemysław Czarnek has a strategic goal: to win back voters who have drifted towards far-right forces, particularly the political environment surrounding Grzegorz Braun.

Czarnek’s selection is also viewed as a response to growing competition within the right-wing camp and an attempt to seize the initiative from more radical political projects.

Above all, this concerns the ambitions of President Karol Nawrocki, who is believed to be seeking to build his own political base in the style of a "Polish MAGA".

At the same time, after the decision to back Czarnek, the internal balance within the party began to shift rapidly. This triggered not only hidden dissatisfaction but also open moves by key players.

Mateusz Morawiecki responded by creating his own platform of influence – the association "Rozwój Plus" ("Development Plus"), which is expected to become the foundation of his political camp.

Meanwhile, Czarnek’s supporters began forming alternative structures of their own, further reinforcing the party’s factional character.

According to media reports, the new grouping aims to consolidate the conservative wing of the party and counterbalance Morawiecki’s initiative. In practice, the party’s formal unity is increasingly masking internal competition.

At the same time, Jarosław Kaczyński is trying hard to maintain balance.

After talks with Morawiecki, he declared that a compromise had been reached and described the party as one that "will have two lungs" – a metaphor for the coexistence of two centers of influence.

However, subsequent developments showed that this compromise was largely declarative. Morawiecki continued to ignore meetings of key party bodies, provoking public dissatisfaction from Kaczyński.

As a result, signals began emerging within the party about possible attempts to push the former prime minister out of leadership positions, effectively indicating a desire to sideline Morawiecki.

At the same time, Morawiecki himself is demonstrating that he has no intention of either leaving politics or abandoning PiS. The former prime minister is trying to position himself not as an internal rebel, but as an alternative center for the programmatic development of the right-wing camp.

Marcin Mastalerek, former chief of staff to President Andrzej Duda, openly stated that the current situation is the result of Jarosław Kaczyński’s own decisions. In his view, nominating Przemysław Czarnek was a political mistake that provoked conflict with Mateusz Morawiecki.

At present, the largest opposition party is painfully choosing the lesser of two evils. On the one hand, an open split could weaken the entire right-wing opposition ahead of elections. On the other hand, internal divisions are becoming increasingly difficult to control.

The final consolidation of Czarnek’s position could lead to an outflow of moderate voters. Conversely, a victory for Morawiecki would weaken Kaczyński’s standing while simultaneously increasing tensions within the party.

The conflict inside "Law and Justice" is already having consequences. PiS’s ratings are not growing, while media attention is increasingly focused on Morawiecki’s activity.

It is worth clarifying: none of these scenarios appears favourable for Ukraine.