How the global trading system is changing and how Ukraine can protect itself

The world is entering a new era of trade wars, where the principles of free trade no longer carry the same weight they did even a decade ago. Instead, trade protection instruments have become mechanisms not only for defending domestic markets but also for securing political and economic concessions.

In effect, the global economy is shifting from a model of free trade to one of "managed trade through trade protection".

Ukraine has found itself at the center of this process.

Read more about the new trade reality and the challenges facing Ukraine in the article (a special project) by Olena Omelchenko of Ilyashev & Partners: Trade wars are already underway: is Ukraine ready for them? How to strengthen domestic market protection. 

In 2025, the European Commission effectively moved to a new model of trade protection.

From now on, combating "global excess production capacity", primarily Chinese, has officially become part of the EU’s economic security policy.

The clearest indicator of the transformation of the global trading system has been the steel industry.

After the United States imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018 on national security grounds, the global steel market effectively entered a state of permanent trade protection.

The European Union was forced to introduce safeguard measures on steel imports, which currently cover 26 categories of steel products. These measures are based on tariff-rate quotas and impose a 25% duty on imports exceeding established quotas.

However, developments in 2025–2026 demonstrate that the EU no longer sees these restrictions as temporary. On the contrary, the European Commission has proposed a new, significantly tougher, steel market protection system.

Most importantly, the European Union has effectively acknowledged that the new system may not fully comply with its tariff obligations under the World Trade Organization (WTO).

At the same time, the current rise in trade protectionism is unfolding alongside a broader crisis within the WTO system itself.

For Ukraine, trade protection has long ceased to be merely a legal issue. Under current conditions, it has become a matter of industrial survival.

At a time when most trading partners have shifted towards strategically protected markets, Ukraine cannot remain a fully open economy.

However, Ukraine’s trade protection system still remains significantly slower than those of the EU, the United States or Türkiye.

In practice, businesses often face delays in investigations, overloaded government agencies and a shortage of specialists in the field of trade protection.

Under current conditions, this is no longer simply an administrative issue but a factor directly affecting the competitiveness of Ukrainian industry.

That is why Ukraine needs to accelerate investigative procedures, make more active use of anti-circumvention mechanisms and adapt its practices to modern European Union approaches.

This, in fact, is what genuine adaptation to European trade rules looks like today.

These new rules of global competition, trade protection practices, and the future of Ukrainian industry will be discussed on 20 May during the conference "Trade Wars: Art of Protection".