Why Fico changed his rhetoric towards Kyiv and how he could lose his pro-Russian electorate

The far-right and pro-Russian Slovak politician Andrej Danko recently criticised Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico for declaring support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Danko is Fico's coalition ally and the leader of the Slovak National Party.

Criticism from the right flank could become a serious problem for Fico.

Read more about the roots of the conflict between Andrej Danko and Robert Fico, and how realistic the far-right politician's chances are of reversing the warming relations between Kyiv and Bratislava in the article by Yurii Panchenko, co-founder of European Pravda: A blow to Fico over Ukraine: how reconciliation with Zelenskyy threatens the Slovak PM.

On Saturday, 2 May, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico posted on Facebook that the Slovak and Ukrainian authorities share "a common interest in establishing good and friendly relations between Slovakia and Ukraine".

Just a few days later, during the summit of the European Political Community in Yerevan, Fico met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Among other things, they agreed to exchange official visits. Unlike their previous meetings near the border, this time the plans involve reciprocal visits to the capitals of both countries.

The rapprochement was driven by the restoration of the Druzhba oil pipeline and the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the parliamentary elections.

However, Fico’s softer anti-Ukrainian rhetoric could create problems within his coalition.

Andrej Danko, who has consistently opposed Ukraine’s accession to the EU, is trying to criticise the Slovak prime minister for unfulfilled promises and for his unwillingness to confront the EU, hoping to win back the pro-Russian electorate.

Notably, the position of the Slovak National Party is no longer what it once was. It is now the smallest coalition partner, and only two members of its parliamentary faction actually belong to the party itself. In addition, support for the Slovak National Party has sharply declined.

As a result, Fico’s attitude towards his coalition partner has changed significantly. The prime minister increasingly demonstrates his dissatisfaction with Danko and effectively ignores his opinion, instead negotiating directly with MPs from Danko’s faction.

"However, Fico’s current turn changes everything. Danko sensed that the anti-Western electorate is dissatisfied with the prime minister’s recent actions and statements, and Danko has a chance to win it back," explains Alexander Duleba of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association.

According to the political scientist, there is every reason to expect that upcoming polls will show declining support for Fico’s party, Direction – Social Democracy (Smer-SD), alongside rising support for the Slovak National Party.

"At the moment, this is still insufficient to enter parliament, but such positive dynamics show Danko that he is on the right track. Therefore, criticism of Fico from far-right positions is likely only to intensify," Duleba predicts.

So one thing can be said with certainty: Fico's room for maneuver has narrowed considerably.

Avoiding conflicts with the EU while simultaneously not losing anti-Western voters may prove extremely difficult for him.

For now, however, Slovak political analysts see no grounds to speak about the collapse of the coalition or snap elections.