Why Merz's party lost another state election and whether he will keep his position as Chancellor
Last Sunday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), suffered a double blow.
In the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the conservatives failed to clear the 5% threshold and, for the first time in their history, found themselves shut out of the state parliament. The election was won by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), securing its third victory in a state in eastern Germany.
Meanwhile, in Berlin, the CDU lost its top position in the House of Representatives, falling behind the Left Party.
For the Christian Democrats, this is already their third major setback in September. At the beginning of the month, they suffered a heavy defeat in Saxony-Anhalt.
Read more about the results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, what lies behind the Christian Democrats’ recent string of failures and whether the chancellor will remain in office in the article by Khrystyna Bondarieva, a European Pravda journalist: Punishment for Merz: could new election defeats trigger a change of government in Germany?
Dissatisfaction with the federal government was an important factor behind the poor election results for Friedrich Merz’s party in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Some voters used the state elections as an opportunity to punish the parties in Berlin’s governing coalition. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the main beneficiary was the AfD, while in Berlin, the Left Party gained the most.
The mobilisation of people who had previously not voted also played an important role.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) managed to avoid the kind of decline experienced by the CDU, largely thanks to the personal popularity of Manuela Schwesig, the state’s longtime Social Democratic premier.
She ran a campaign that positioned her against the Alternative for Germany.
Her slogan was A Woman Against the Blue, with blue being the AfD’s party colour.
At the same time, Schwesig deliberately distanced herself from the federal government, including by criticising its reforms, particularly its pension reform.
Although Manuela Schwesig did not manage to overtake the AfD at the finish line, her ability to significantly narrow the gap stands out as a notable result.
Although she is primarily a regional politician, she has a controversial reputation in Ukraine.
This is mainly due to her position on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, whose launch she supported until January 2022 – practically until the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
24 February completely changed her attitude towards Nord Stream 2 and Russia.
In June 2024, Schwesig visited Ukraine for the first time as president of the Bundesrat. That year, she held the position on a rotating basis as premier of one of Germany’s 16 federal states.
She promised to support Ukraine in its fight against the aggressor and to help with its accession to the European Union.
While dissatisfaction with the federal government in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania primarily translated into support for the Alternative for Germany, in Berlin, the Left Party benefited. It managed to attract a significant number of young voters.
Given the poor election results, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made it clear that he would not give up either his position as party leader or his seat as chancellor. Instead, he promised to step up efforts to implement changes.
Nevertheless, Merz did gain something on 20 September. And that is time, which he now hopes to use. Under the current election calendar, no further state elections are scheduled until April 2027. This gives the federal government several months to demonstrate results from its economic policies and reforms.
But it is not only about the time needed to implement reforms. There is another reason why the CDU is not yet rushing to abandon Merz: the lack of an obvious alternative.
None of the current candidates is an obvious successor.