Why Slovakia could call snap elections and what Fico is hoping for

Exactly three years ago, on 30 September 2023, following snap parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Robert Fico returned to power in Slovakia. Since then, the country has been rocked by repeated anti-government protests, the diverse governing coalition has never appeared particularly stable, and political commentators have periodically discussed the possibility of its collapse.

However, only now, with a year remaining until the regularly scheduled parliamentary elections, snap elections have emerged as a genuinely realistic scenario.

Read more in the article by Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda co-founder: Fico without a majority: will Slovakia hold snap elections and what would this mean for Ukraine?

On 27 September, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico warned during a televised debate that snap parliamentary elections could take place in January 2027.

The immediate cause is a conflict within the governing Slovak National Party (SNS).

Party leader Andrej Danko is unhappy that Tomáš Taraba, the party's representative who heads the Ministry of Environment, is not coordinating his policies with the party leadership. Taraba's policies, particularly in the field of green energy, do not align with the party's platform and are therefore unpopular with the Slovak National Party's core electorate.

In response, the minister began threatening the government, warning that the parliamentary coalition would lose his support and that of two lawmakers close to him.

Currently, the coalition holds just 78 seats in the 150-member parliament. Losing three of them would mean losing its majority.

Despite the threats and Prime Minister Robert Fico's attempts to resolve the situation, Andrej Danko, in accordance with the coalition agreement, formally requested the dismissal of the minister appointed from his party's quota. On 29 September, Tomáš Taraba was dismissed.

This decision is itself a sensation. The last time Slovakia's opposition succeeded in removing a minister was 33 years ago.

However, something else is far more significant: a year before the next scheduled elections, Robert Fico has lost his parliamentary majority. Clearly, the coalition can now retain either Danko's faction or Taraba's faction, but neither scenario would allow it to restore its parliamentary majority.

From now on, the coalition will have to seek support from its opponents for every parliamentary vote. This could also lead to the government's resignation, for example, if it fails to secure the timely passage of the state budget. At present, this appears to be the most likely scenario leading to the government's resignation and snap elections.

Moreover, Robert Fico could deliberately steer events in this direction in a way that boosts his popularity. For example, he could propose an intentionally unacceptable, populist budget featuring inflated social benefits, allow it to fail in parliament, and then accuse all the other parties of "not caring about the people." Against this backdrop, he could call early elections.

Furthermore, keeping a minority government in power could lead to further declines in the approval ratings of all coalition parties. Early elections would therefore give Fico a chance to avoid further losses.

What are the chances that parties pledging support for Ukraine could come to power in new elections? It is highly likely as for today

Even members of the governing coalition acknowledge this.

The current opposition has a strong chance of winning a combined parliamentary majority and forming a new government. In this scenario, the leading candidate for prime minister would be Michal Šimečka, leader of Progressive Slovakia. With support of around 20%, his party currently leads in Slovak voter preferences.

This would be a very positive outcome for Ukraine, as Šimečka and his fellow party members have pledged to restore unconditional support for Ukraine and have consistently criticised Fico over his ties with Russia.

Other opposition parties that currently have a chance of crossing the electoral threshold have also pledged their support for Ukraine.

However, there are two risks that give Robert Fico hope of making a swift political comeback.

In any case, the elections are shaping up to be highly unpredictable. Their outcome cannot be forecast in advance, but it is possible to say with a high degree of certainty that the election campaign period will be a challenging one for Ukraine.