How a "friend of Putin" strengthened his influence after Bosnia and Herzegovina's elections and what to expect

Elections were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on 4 October, electing three presidents and two vice presidents, speakers of three parliaments, as well as more than 500 lawmakers.

The sheer number of positions shows how complex the country’s political system is and how easily it can be destabilised.

Ahead of the elections, there were hopes that separatists in the Serb entity (Republika Srpska) would become a thing of the past, along with the idea of dismantling Bosnia and Herzegovina as a unified state. An earlier package of electoral reforms was expected to help bring about political renewal. However, those hopes were not fulfilled.

Read more about the election results and what comes next in the article by Yurii Panchenko and Volodymyr Tsybulnyk: A choice at the expense of the future: why BiH failed to overcome its divisions and get rid of "Putin’s friends".

BiH’s political structure, and especially its electoral legislation, is based on ethnic divisions. The Dayton Accords, which laid the foundation for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s system of government, recognise three constituent peoples: Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats. Those who do not belong to any of these groups are classified as "Others" and face significant restrictions on their ability to vote and stand for election.

By contrast, Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats each elect one member of the BiH Presidency, essentially a collective presidency for the country.

According to preliminary results, Denis Bećirović, the incumbent member of the Presidency, won the Bosniak seat.

He advocates a new pro-European, civic model for BiH and opposes the efforts of Milorad Dodik and his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) to separate Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina. He also takes a pro-Ukrainian position, condemns Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, considers Russia a threat to BiH as well, and has no contacts with the Kremlin.

The election of the Croat member of the Presidency was a surprise.

Darijana Filipović of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), a sister party of Croatia’s HDZ, won the seat. The Croatian party is led by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, which is why Bosnia’s HDZ enjoys significant support from the Croatian government. Accordingly, the party has a clear pro-Western orientation: it supports BiH membership in the EU and NATO, condemns Russian aggression and backs Western sanctions against Russia.

Thus, the Bosniak and Croat members of the Presidency have similar positions on foreign policy. Domestically, however, things are much more complicated.

Filipović does not rule out the idea of creating a third, Croat entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This can facilitate tactical alliances between Croat politicians and Dodik’s Serb separatists.

Nevertheless, the main threat to BiH’s existence as a unified state is not so much the Croats’ desire to further strengthen their constitutional status as the separatism of Republika Srpska.

And here, it is crucial that Željka Cvijanović was re-elected as the Serb member of the BiH Presidency. She represents the party of Milorad Dodik, described as a "friend of Putin," and has been his longtime political ally.

Cvijanović’s victory means that the work of BiH’s key constitutional body is likely to remain effectively blocked. All decisions there are made by consensus among the three presidents, while Dodik’s strategy is precisely to obstruct the functioning of BiH’s common institutions.

Although Dodik did not formally take part in the election campaign, he remained its most active political player in Republika Srpska. As a result, his party also retained first place in the entity’s parliament. The Alliance of Independent Social Democrats won 39% of the vote, giving it 34 of the 83 seats – five more than it currently holds.

Five days before the election, Dodik flew to Moscow, where he met with Vladimir Putin. They jointly spoke of the "unfair treatment" of Serbs and their "discrediting", as well as the "evil coming from Brussels bureaucrats".

Significantly, after the election, Dodik thanked not only Putin for the victory but also US President Donald Trump. Last year, Trump lifted sanctions on Dodik himself and members of his family.

The 4 October election result demonstrates that, despite legal restrictions, Dodik retains extensive control over the political situation in Republika Srpska. At the same time, it gives him continued leverage to pressure Bosnia and Herzegovina’s central government.

As a result, BiH may face even greater difficulty in moving out of the gray zone between its current status and deeper integration with the Euro-Atlantic institutions.

This article was produced within the framework of MOST – Media Organisations for Stronger Transnational Journalism, a Journalism Partnership funded by the Creative Europe programme that supports independent media specializing in international reporting