How a major scandal and anti-Ukrainian statements shaped Poland’s presidential election

It is highly likely that Rafał Trzaskowski – the Mayor of Warsaw and the clear front-runner – will become Poland’s next president.

The first round of Poland’s presidential election is set to be held this Sunday.

For Ukraine, Trzaskowski’s victory would be a positive scenario, considering that his main rivals – Karol Nawrocki and Sławomir Mentzen – are openly anti-Ukrainian in both rhetoric and actions.

However, the era of Poland’s president being a staunch advocate and "lawyer" for Ukraine is coming to an end.

Read more about the implications of these elections for both Poland and its relations with Ukraine in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: An election marked by anti-Ukrainian rhetoric: why Poland’s next president won’t be Ukraine’s ally.

For the current ruling coalition in Poland, which formed a government under Donald Tusk less than two years ago, the presidential election marks the final step in completing the transition of power.

If the coalition’s candidate becomes president, it will allow for a more active dismantling of the influence of their opponents from the Law and Justice party (PiS).

For Jarosław Kaczyński’s PiS, however, the presidential election is a chance for a political comeback.

Such a comeback is particularly important as many top PiS politicians are currently facing the threat of criminal prosecution.

The party – or more precisely, Kaczyński himself – entrusted Karol Nawrocki, the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, with the mission of becoming the "second Duda." Nawrocki is officially running as an independent to avoid inheriting the unpopularity of the previous government.

However, Nawrocki’s campaign got off to a disastrous start. His place in the second round is no longer guaranteed.

Even a visit to Donald Trump at the White House failed to boost his ratings. The potential benefits of that meeting were entirely overshadowed by an unprecedented scandal sparked by a journalistic investigation.

Still, a guaranteed win for Rafał Trzaskowski cannot be declared either.

Two weeks remain before the run-off. There is a noticeable downward trend in Trzaskowski’s polling numbers.

To halt the decline, the liberal candidate has added new elements to his campaign.

Among these – a shift in his stance toward Ukraine and Ukrainians.

Notably, earlier this year, Trzaskowski proposed limiting social benefits for Ukrainian parents who are not officially employed.

And during a 12 May debate, he unexpectedly stated that Ukraine should become a buffer zone between Poland and Russia.

It’s important to emphasise: unlike Nawrocki or Sławomir Mentzen, the presidential frontrunner is not an anti-Ukrainian politician. However, his current position suggests that we should not expect him to advocate forcefully for Ukraine’s interests as past Polish presidents have done.

The reason lies in changing public sentiment in Poland. The number of Poles who view Ukrainians negatively is rising.

Moreover, the drivers of this trend are young Poles, indicating that such sentiments are likely to grow.

Still, there is hope that Polish politicians may soon need to pay closer attention to Ukrainian public opinion. That’s because a wave of Ukrainians is expected to receive Polish citizenship in the coming years.