Why the "Kremlin’s candidate" lost the elections in Romania and who deserves credit for this sensation

The presidential elections in Romania could have ended very unfavourably for Ukraine. A clearly pro-Russian politician, who had voiced territorial claims against Ukraine and is declared persona non grata in our country, had every chance to become the new president of Romania.

However, that scenario was avoided. The winner of the second round was the pro-European independent mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan.

Read more about what Romania’s "electoral sensation" means for Ukraine and the challenges the new president will face in the interview with Serhii Herasymchuk, Deputy Executive Director of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism": Romania chooses the EU: why the presidential elections were a Europe-scale sensation.

Why did this victory happen after all? Several factors played a role.

The diaspora truly made a difference. In fact, we witnessed a unique case when Moldovan President Maia Sandu voted in the elections of a neighbouring country.

There was also high voter turnout in the cities, which benefited Dan, who is the mayor of the capital and is seen as a candidate favoured by urban voters.

Another explanation is that there is always a portion of the population that mobilises during critical moments.

I believe this effect was present, as we saw an increase in voter turnout in the second round. It seems that those who wanted to keep Romania part of Europe came to the polls.

Another unexpected factor in the Romanian elections was the position of the ethnic Hungarian population.

Despite Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s calls to vote for Simion, the Hungarian minority in Romania supported Nicușor Dan.

Romania experienced a scenario in which two anti-establishment presidential candidates made it to the second round.

Not only Simion, but Dan as well can be considered anti-establishment.

The winner of the presidential race is a politician of a new generation, formed in completely different political conditions. Therefore, he can also be considered anti-establishment – at least in relation to Romania’s current political system.

That’s precisely why, according to all forecasts, only Dan was capable of defeating Simion in the second round.

What was surprising is that George Simion did not take the opportunity to stir unrest.

A significant role was played by the margin between the candidates and the lack of external support. Specifically, the Russians openly abandoned him at the critical moment.

President-elect Nicușor Dan is ready to nominate the current acting president Ilie Bolojan as the new Prime Minister – a candidate who is expected to be supported by the Social Democrats as well. Bolojan has a reputation as a technocrat rather than an ideologue, making him a suitable choice for head of government.

If this option fails, there is a backup plan: a technocratic government. Although it may not have a stable majority, it could gather the necessary votes from various factions.

If the Romanian parliament rejects two of the president's prime ministerial nominations, the country must hold early parliamentary elections.

This scenario will most likely be avoided: early parliamentary elections pose a high risk due to the growing popularity of far-right parties.

Dan’s victory is the most beneficial outcome for Ukraine. With Dan as president, Romania is expected to continue supporting Ukraine.

Moreover, work on a strategic partnership treaty is likely to resume.