Will Czech parliament form a coalition with the far-right and what it means for Ukraine

Andrej Babiš, leader of the ANO party, which won first place in the Czech parliamentary elections held on 3-4 October, announced that he has reached an agreement with the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and Motorists for Themselves parties regarding the distribution of ministerial positions in the new government.

According to this agreement, the Ministry of Defence, crucial from Ukraine’s perspective, is to go to the far-right SPD, which has explicitly called for ending support for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Motorists's candidate for Foreign Minister has proven extremely controversial and scandalous.

Read more about how the winners of the Czech parliamentary elections are forming a coalition and whether the new government will threaten relations with Ukraine in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Czechia prepares for a change of power: Will Babiš’s government be a problem for Ukraine? 

Before the parliamentary elections, Andrej Babiš declared that his political movement would under no circumstances form a coalition with SPD, a far-right party known for its extremist image.

However, once the election results were announced and it became clear that Babiš’s party could not form a parliamentary majority without SPD, that earlier promise was quickly forgotten.

Together, SPD and the Motorists will have only 28 seats, almost three times fewer than ANO. Yet, under the preliminary agreement, they may receive almost as many cabinet positions as the election-winning party.

One theory holds that Babiš deliberately chose to form a government that has little chance of being approved in order to later pressure his coalition partners to lower their demands.

It should be recalled that President Petr Pavel has stated he would not approve a government advocating Czechia’s withdrawal from the EU and NATO or the cessation of support for Ukraine.

The Motorists’s personnel proposals have also proven highly questionable, which plays into Babiš’s hands. After a presidential rejection, the ANO leader would have every reason to call on his coalition partners to revise their agreements – including significantly reducing their influence over the government.

Alternatively, he might persuade them to forgo a formal coalition and instead merely support a minority ANO government, in exchange for parliamentary positions.

Reputational scandals are far from the only problem complicating the formation of a new Czech government.

It is already known that at least five of the fifteen future deputies who entered parliament under the SPD quota, and who represent other far-right factions, are strongly opposed to forming a coalition with Babiš’s party. Without their votes, the coalition would have only 103 seats, barely above the 101-seat threshold needed for a majority.

In addition, opposition is growing within SPD itself toward its leader Tomio Okamura, who is being blamed for the party’s disappointing election results.

All of this makes a potential coalition of ANO, SPD and the Motorists extremely unstable and increases the likelihood of a minority government scenario.

This outcome would be the most favorable for Kyiv, as it would ensure that Czech support for Ukraine remains largely unchanged.

The newly elected Czech parliament will convene only on 3 November, and discussions over the format of the new coalition and government are expected to continue until then.

Accordingly, the composition and direction of the future government may change significantly and there is reason to hope that in the end, it will turn out to be far more pro-Western and democratic than it appears today.