Why Kyiv has abruptly changed its policy towards the Belarusian opposition and what Trump has to do with it

On 25 January in Vilnius, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held his first-ever meeting with the head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus (the government-in-exile), Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya – a meeting he had previously carefully avoided. Not only did he speak with her, but he also promised to positively resolve the issues raised by the Belarusian side and invited Tsikhanouskaya to Kyiv.

Importantly, the initiative for the meeting came from the Ukrainian side, which is highly uncharacteristic of Ukraine’s relations with the Belarusian opposition.

Read more about how and why Ukraine is fundamentally changing its approach to cooperation with Belarus’s democratic forces in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: The end of "peace" with Lukashenko: how Yermak’s resignation affected the Belarus policy.

A short handshake at a public event in the German city of Aachen in May 2023. Hard to believe, but that had remained the only personal interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

And now, Zelenskyy and Tsikhanouskaya held their first proper meeting on Sunday in Lithuania.

Kyiv’s sharp policy shift may have domestic roots. The previous head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, opposed to such contacts.

The reasons for that policy were explained as follows: the Belarusian democratic camp is weak and fragmented, with periodic internal conflicts. Cooperation with Tsikhanouskaya’s team, therefore, would not strengthen Ukraine, but instead create additional risks along the Belarusian border.

The initiative for the meeting also came from Ukraine because cooperation with the Belarusian opposition is now more necessary for Ukraine than ever.

Dialogue between Ukraine and Belarus’s democratic forces began at a moment when self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko received his most realistic chance in years of full-scale war to break out of international isolation and have a significant portion of sanctions lifted.

Lukashenko agreed to release the most prominent political prisoners last December, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski. In response, the United States lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash.

Later, Donald Trump invited Lukashenko (as well as Vladimir Putin) to join the Peace Council and unlike most European leaders, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus immediately accepted the invitation.

All of this suggests that the process of bringing Lukashenko out of international isolation may continue.

In particular, Minsk is counting on the Trump administration to help organise potash transit because without it, lifting sanctions would have little positive effect on the economy.

Traditionally, Belarusian potash was exported via transit through Lithuania to the port of Klaipėda. However, it is far from certain that even Lithuania’s current, much more pragmatic government would agree to unblock this transit.

An alternative route for Belarusian potash could be Ukraine. As absurd as it may sound, Lukashenko’s regime does not hide its hopes that such transit could be written into a future peace agreement.

Under these circumstances, Ukraine needed to send a clear signal: such deals behind our back are unacceptable and will not be accepted. Establishing contacts with Tsikhanouskaya’s office can be seen as precisely such a signal.

"Ultimately, Ukraine has done nothing extraordinary. Tsikhanouskaya is recognised as the democratic leader of Belarus throughout Europe, and we have simply finally joined the common European position," says Ihor Kyzym, former ambassador-at-large for Belarus.