Why "Orbán's friend" lost in Slovenia and what consequences this will have

Attention to Slovenia's parliamentary elections extended far beyond this small post-Yugoslav country.

Pre-election polls predicted victory for the right-wing opposition led by former prime minister Janez Janša. His return to power would have been a gift for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, confirming his concept of a gradual but irreversible shift of Europe towards ultra-conservative values.

However, according to the preliminary count of all votes, the winner was the Freedom Movement of current Prime Minister Robert Golob.

Read more about who may enter the new coalition and why negotiations could prove much more complicated than after the previous elections in the article by Western Balkans expert Volodymyr Tsybulnyk: Slovenia breaks 'Orbán's plan': consequences of the victory of incumbent Prime Minister Golob. 

At the start of the campaign, it seemed that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was right and that Janez Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) would win.

However, closer to the final tally, when the State Election Commission began counting ballots from urban polling stations, the situation gradually began to change.

The Freedom Movement took first place with 28.82% of voters. Yet compared to the previous election, its presence in parliament will shrink from 41 to 29 seats, which will significantly complicate coalition-building.

Meanwhile, the Slovenian Democratic Party, predicted to achieve a loud comeback, received only 27.95% of the vote, translating into 28 seats – just one more than it currently holds.

It appears that the wiretapping scandal (reportedly involving the Israeli intelligence company Black Cube) targeting the leadership of the Freedom Movement had the opposite effect of what was expected, merely mobilising Janša’s opponents.

As a result, Prime Minister Robert Golob and Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon stated that this case (if confirmed by investigation) constitutes "treason and an attack on Slovenia’s sovereignty".

Other members of the current coalition showed decent results. The Left/Spring bloc, with 5.58%, retains five seats. However, the Social Democrats lose one seat (6.7%, 6 seats).

Thus, the current coalition partners secured only 40 seats, while at least 46 are needed for a majority.

Golob has stated that he is open to negotiations with all democratic forces to form a democratic coalition and government (naturally excluding the SDS).

Leaders of the bloc led by New Slovenia (9 seats) said they do not rule out joining the governing coalition.

The formation of the coalition will now largely depend on how Robert Golob conducts negotiations, what concessions he is willing to make, and whether he can win over potential allies.

The main conclusion of these elections is that the European club of right-wing populists has not gained a new member.

The elections in Slovenia demonstrated that the fragile resilience of pro-European, centrist, and liberal forces holds if mobilisation is high and the stakes and goals are clearly defined. At the same time, the right is showing early signs of fragmentation and loss of popularity.

This is bad news primarily for Viktor Orbán, whose own parliamentary elections are set to be held 12 April. It is also unfavourable for Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.