Will Hungary's unique electoral system save Orbán and what is he hoping for?

On 7 April, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán played what his team had long hoped would be his main geopolitical trump card. US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Budapest to take part in the incumbent Hungarian premier’s campaign tour and publicly declared that Orbán would definitely win the election.

However, it can already be stated with some certainty that this bet did not work. Vance’s visit brought no noticeable electoral dividends to Orbán’s regime, and instead the presence of the American guest is now restraining the Hungarian authorities from taking any sharp actions.

But it must be emphasised: this is not the end of the battle.

The key factor that may work in the prime minister’s favour is the electoral system he designed himself.

Read more about how the system built by Viktor Orbán works, what he is counting on and why the visit of the US vice president did not become a "lifeline" for him in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor: The system in Orbán’s service: where the Hungarian leader will get votes and why JD Vance won’t save him.

For those interested in elections in European countries and in America, it is usually normal that on the morning after voting day one can say with certainty who won and by what result.

But the elections in Hungary, which are historic not only for that country but for all of Europe, may break this rule.

Orbán built a system in which vote counting lasts more than a week.

Moreover, there are scenarios in which the last counted ballots will determine the election outcome, the composition of parliament and even the winning party.

Hungary’s electoral system is unique, has no analogues in the world and is designed to distort results in favour of the party that controls rural regions. That party is Orbán’s Fidesz.

Hungary uses a mixed system, where fewer MPs are elected from party lists – a maximum of 93 out of 199 (this year it will be 92, because Orbán found a way in advance to "reserve" one seat for a loyal representative of the Roma minority). So when you hear polling figures showing Orbán or Magyar with a certain percentage of support, they primarily concern the distribution of those 92 seats.

The majority of MPs, 106 out of 199, are elected in single-member districts. And here there is another unique feature.

Voters have the right to vote far from home, after notifying authorities in advance. On Saturday, 18 April, local commissions will gather to count additional votes from those who voted away from home.

Ironically, this system has now turned against Orbán.

This year, a record number of voters registered to vote abroad – more than 90,000 people. The overwhelming majority of these citizens dream of removing Orbán from power.

However, Orbán’s main advantage lies in single-member districts.

District boundaries in Hungary are drawn in a way that allows residents of villages and small towns, traditionally Orbán strongholds, to determine as many mandates as possible (while anti-Orbán Budapest has disproportionately few seats).

But now even the regions are sending negative signals.

No one, including the government, has a complete picture across all 106 districts, but pollsters are studying several key constituencies. The findings show that the government’s problems are growing. A recent survey by the Research Centre 21, known for its accuracy in previous elections, predicts defeats for Orbán’s candidates in places where they had previously won.

Hungarians have begun to realise that Orbán is not eternal and that an alternative has emerged.

Even the visit of US Vice President JD Vance gave Orbán no new advantages.

However, overly optimistic conclusions should be avoided – voting in individual districts may still bring surprises and predicting them is simply impossible.