What are the chances of changing power in Poland, and what is PiS counting on?

The victory of Karol Nawrocki in Poland’s presidential elections gives hope to the Law and Justice party ("PiS"), which backed the winner, that it might regain the levers of power.

Within this political force, there is already talk of snap parliamentary elections, interpreting the presidential election result as a red card for the current coalition and personally for Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

So while President Andrzej Duda, whose term is nearing its end, was saying farewell in Kyiv and receiving the Order of Freedom, in Poland itself, the PiS party was preparing a new campaign for power at its party congress.

Read more about this plan and its first cracks in the article by international affairs expert Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi: Strategy of revenge: How PiS plans to regain power in Poland.

The results of the 2023 parliamentary elections dealt such a heavy blow to the then-ruling Law and Justice party that it seemed they might never recover.

However, that two-year-old defeat did not break the ambitions of party leader Jarosław Kaczyński and his circle. On the contrary, today it is increasingly clear that PiS is planning a major political comeback.

According to former Prime Minister Leszek Miller, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński has made it clear that the party must win the parliamentary elections.

Miller explains that PiS is counting on using Karol Nawrocki’s presidency to secure victory in the parliamentary vote.

Given the current political realities, Law and Justice is likely banking on a "two-headed" system of power – with a parallel center of authority in the Presidential Palace that can block various initiatives of Tusk’s government and set its own conservative and nationalist agenda.

The weak spot in this comeback plan lies in how obedient Karol Nawrocki will be to PiS’s wishes.

Kaczyński’s team is trying to solve this problem by filling the presidential office with as many of their people as possible.

But already in the first days after the election, tense discussions arose between Nawrocki’s entourage and PiS leadership regarding the composition of the presidential office.

PiS had hoped to coordinate key appointments, but Nawrocki hinted at wanting to assemble his own team independently.

During the election campaign, Nawrocki presented himself as an independent candidate, keeping his distance from party agreements.

According to media reports, a particular dispute has erupted over Przemysław Czarnek, the former Minister of Education and Science, known for his critical views on Ukraine.

Will Jarosław Kaczyński be able to impose his choice for the key post of head of the presidential office on Nawrocki?

In any case, these initial personnel frictions are only the beginning of a test of the strength of Nawrocki’s alliance with PiS – an alliance complicated by the fact that the newly elected president has options and could lean on the ideologically closer Confederation party.

Another problem (especially for Kyiv, but not only) is that a significant portion of Karol Nawrocki’s votes came from supporters of Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun. It was their voters who tipped the scales in Nawrocki’s favor in the second round.

This electorate expects hardline anti-immigration rhetoric, defense of "traditional values," and historical revanchism. The new president will not be able to ignore their expectations.

Therefore, PiS’s current victory has every chance of becoming a Pyrrhic one.

A win in the presidential election by a candidate with much more radical views than PiS itself could turn out to be a far greater problem for them than a victory by a pro-government candidate.