Why Serbian President's position is shaking and whether the EU will save him

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s position is under pressure. The authorities’ attempts to suppress protests that have continued since the end of last year have only led to their radicalisation.

Clashes between protesters and security forces have been ongoing in Serbia for six days now, with no sign that the protests are losing momentum.

Read more more about the intensification of street confrontations in Serbia and whether they could lead to the fall of Vučić’s regime in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: A revolution without EU support: why protests erupted in Serbia and whether Vučić faces a fall.

Mass protests erupted in Serbia in November 2024 after a concrete canopy at the newly renovated railway station in the northern city of Novi Sad collapsed, killing 16 people. This tragedy shocked the country and became a symbol of how elite corruption, which has flourished under Vučić’s rule, can literally kill.

The protesters’ key demand was a fair investigation into the causes of the Novi Sad disaster. Later, the protests grew into a large-scale student strike.

Unlike traditional opposition demonstrations, this protest has proven particularly dangerous for the Serbian authorities. It has no leaders with whom the government could negotiate, and, if necessary, intimidate or discredit.

The 28 June protests, timed to Vidovdan (a holiday of special importance in Serbian history), showed that the movement had not lost its strength – on the contrary. Protesters also added the demand for snap parliamentary elections.

Since July, the Serbian president has been trying to address the protesters exclusively from a position of strength.

Yet the actions of the security forces have only intensified resistance.

According to the Serbian opposition, recent events have finally proven that Vučić can no longer rely on a loyal majority. Instead, his main weapon is instilling fear of a civil war if the protests continue.

"There will be no civil war in Serbia, but there will also be no mercy for bandits and hooligans," Vučić declared on 14 August in response to the protests.

For now, the Serbian president says he prefers not to impose a state of emergency, but is preparing "unexpected decisions" in response to the anti-government demonstrations.

Interestingly, domestic developments have not provoked sharp criticism from the West.

The EU’s stance is proving extremely favourable to Vučić.

"Since the start of the student protests, the EU has adopted a wait-and-see approach," wrote Serbian foreign policy commentator Boško Jakšić in Danas.

The secret of this support lies in Vučić’s ability to convince Brussels that only he can guarantee stability in the country, and that if he resigns, radicals, who might start a new war, for example, to reclaim Kosovo, are almost certain to take power.

Moreover, the Serbian president has managed to interest leading EU countries with economic deals.

As a result, the EU’s position has caused disappointment among Serbian youth regarding European integration.

The EU’s silence does not guarantee Vučić’s grip on power. Without Western support, the protests have lasted nine months and are only growing stronger.

At the same time, the EU’s silence ensures that Serbia’s confrontation will be as protracted and bloody as possible.