Why the new Polish president refused to meet with Orbán

On 28 November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán once again traveled to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. The Hungarian authoritarian leader’s visit to the Russian dictator did not bring any major surprises. Reports say their discussions focused on the supply of Russian oil and gas to Hungary, as well as the war in Ukraine.

However, the trip unexpectedly caused fallout in relations with Poland’s new president, Karol Nawrocki, whom Orbán had already rushed to proclaim as his ally.

The President of Poland decided to cancel a planned bilateral meeting with the Hungarian prime minister – a move that came as a cold shower for Budapest.

Read more about the consequences of Nawrocki’s decision in the article by Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in political science and international expert: Refusal to Orbán: How the visit to Putin destroyed the right-wing alliance between Poland and Hungary.  

A few years ago, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán did not hide his ambition to build an alternative center of influence in Central Europe – one in which Poland would play a key role.

And Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) repeatedly emphasised that despite different views on the Russian threat, the two countries were united in opposing the "dictatorship of Brussels."

However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 made such a configuration impossible. Warsaw took a strongly pro-Ukrainian stance, while Budapest maintained its course of cooperation with Moscow.

Karol Nawrocki’s victory in Poland’s presidential election, supported by PiS, was seen by Viktor Orbán as a chance to rebuild the "bridge" to Warsaw.

Orbán openly seeks to restore the Visegrád Group as a base for Central European resistance to Brussels (and also for blocking Ukraine’s EU accession). The meeting of the V4 presidents scheduled for 3 December in Esztergom, Hungary, was supposed to demonstrate that this plan stood a real chance.

But the visit to Putin ruined everything. Although Nawrocki is ideologically close to radical right-wing circles (including critics of the EU and of Ukraine), he is not a politician leaning toward Russia, rather the opposite.

The Polish president canceled the bilateral meeting with the Hungarian prime minister. He cited the legacy of Lech Kaczyński – the idea of European solidarity in the face of security challenges. Orbán’s trip to the Kremlin undermines that very foundation.

At the same time, Nawrocki did not withdraw from participating in the Visegrád Group summit. In doing so, he signals that the regional format remains important, but the Hungarian prime minister personally cannot claim to be a strategic partner.

This refusal was clearly a real slap in the face for the Hungarian leader, especially uncomfortable given that Hungary will hold parliamentary elections in April next year.

Moreover, the Polish president’s move triggered several simultaneous fractures – both within Poland’s right-wing opposition and between Polish and Hungarian "conservatives."

But most importantly, it demonstrated that Poland’s traditional right remains uncompromising when it comes to any flirtation with Russia. And those Polish political forces that hold opposing views now find themselves in a clear minority.