How Trump's help to Lukashenko created problems for Lithuania's authorities and what to expect

Lithuania has found itself one step away from a political crisis caused by the growing activity of supporters of "constructive cooperation with Russia and Belarus."

President Gitanas Nausėda is highly sсeptical of such concessions, but the government appears to hold a somewhat different position. This creates preconditions for a deep conflict between the country’s key leaders.

Read more about the situation Lithuania is facing in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Lithuania pushed toward concessions: what lies behind the conflict between the president and the coalition.

On 24 March, Lithuania’s Seimas voted in the first reading on a bill to create a new military training ground in Kapčiamiestis. The site is planned near the border with Belarus – more precisely, near the Suwałki Corridor, the Polish-Lithuanian border area between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad region.

For this reason, the Suwałki Corridor is considered one of the most likely locations for potential Russian military aggression against EU countries.

This explains the strategic importance of the training ground. Lithuania aims to strengthen defences as quickly as possible at a potential point of attack.

On the one hand, the decision passed its first reading by a very convincing majority, but it succeeded largely thanks to almost unanimous support from opposition deputies, while the ruling coalition’s votes alone were insufficient.

Moreover, of the ten deputies who voted against, seven represented coalition partner – the far-right party Dawn of Nemunas.

These results angered President Gitanas Nausėda. He went so far as to publicly call, for the first time, for the removal from the coalition of its most toxic participant Dawn of Nemunas.

The vote came after the United States took the unprecedented step of lifting sanctions on the Lukashenko regime in exchange for the mass release of political prisoners.

The lifting of sanctions is an unquestionable success for Lukashenko, but he cannot fully capitalise on it. EU sanctions remain in force, as does Lithuania’s ban on the transit of Belarusian potash fertilisers to the port of Klaipėda.

Therefore, Lithuania’s position on restoring or maintaining the transit ban has become decisive for Belarus’s self-proclaimed president.

Trump’s special envoy John Cole said in an interview with Lithuanian portal LRT that "Belarusian potash fertilisers should pass through Lithuania, which would open access to Europe and even the United States."

This proposal put the Lithuanian government before a very difficult choice.

On the one hand, relations between Lithuania and Belarus are currently at a very low point; on the other, the ruling Social Democratic Party is not as uncompromising toward Lukashenko as its conservative predecessors.

Moreover, there are political forces within the coalition, primarily Dawn of Nemunas, that had previously advocated lifting the ban on Belarusian transit. A number of influential Social Democratic leaders are also believed to hold a similar position.

Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė announced the appointment of a special representative for dialogue with Belarus, though she did not name the person.

President Nausėda, however, remains categorically opposed to concessions to Lukashenko. According to him, dialogue is possible only after concessions from Belarus.

Lithuanian political scientist Vytautas Bruveris notes that supporters of restoring dialogue with Russia and Belarus existed within the ruling coalition from the start, but until recently they could not push their agenda as strongly as they can after the US initiative.

Despite the president’s calls, the current conflict is unlikely to lead to a reshaping of the coalition, the political scientist believes.

However, it may intensify confrontation between the government and President Nausėda and could even lead to the dismissal of the foreign minister. But even if dialogue with Minsk resumes, unblocking the transit of Belarusian goods through the country will be very difficult, primarily due to public opposition.