Hungary’s veto is no more. Now Ukraine must catch up with Moldova in the race to join EU
The Hungarian government has finally lifted its veto on Ukraine’s progress towards EU membership after blockading it for several months. At two intergovernmental conferences with Ukraine and Moldova in Luxembourg, ministers from the 27 member states officially gave both countries the green light to proceed in the accession negotiations.
The two clusters opened for both countries form the core of economic integration with the EU, covering, among other things, the rules of competition.
Meanwhile, another priority popped up in Luxembourg.
It’s also about competition – but not in an economic sense.
When the accession negotiations were opened, the EU was willing to keep Ukraine and Moldova in sync and avoid decoupling the two countries in the accession process. But when it comes to closing the negotiations, Ukraine is seriously lagging behind.
European Pravda sources indicate that Moldova is to begin an official progress assessment, also known as an IBAR (Interim Benchmark Assessment Report), this year. Chișinău intends to demonstrate that it has met the initial accession benchmarks set by the EU over the summer. Kyiv is still a long way off this stage, but Vsevolod Chentsov, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, has emphasised that this is becoming a priority for Ukraine as well.
EU officials in Brussels have also noted that Ukraine has begun to mention the term IBAR, but they say Kyiv is still limiting itself to talk rather than action.
As a result, the EU is making more ambitious statements about Moldova, suggesting, for example, that accession negotiations with Moldova could be concluded in 2028.
It is already clear that further concessions from Ukraine will be required in order to open the two remaining negotiating clusters, and Hungary will no longer be the source of the problems. Countries with elections just around the corner, including Poland and France, could become centres of resistance. That’s why it’s important that the clusters are opened before these countries enter the final stages of their election campaigns. There were some encouraging, though cautious, signs of progress in Luxembourg.
The foundations of EU accession, but in the economy
On 13 October, on the sidelines of a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg, the European Union greenlit the next steps towards accession for Albania, Moldova and Ukraine. The EU opened two negotiating clusters for Ukraine: Clusters 2 (Internal Market) and 3 (Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth).
"Tomorrow, I will be happy to replace the 17 red tokens on the 'enlargement wall' in my office with yellow ones for Ukraine," said European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, who is responsible for accession negotiations with candidate countries, commenting on the decision.
As a result, Ukraine now has 24 of the 33 main negotiating chapters open – that is, the majority.
In any discussion of negotiating clusters in the EU accession process, the one most often mentioned is Cluster 1: Fundamentals. It includes issues such as the rule of law, combating corruption, democracy and more. Under the EU’s established rules, a candidate country’s progress on the Fundamentals determines the course of negotiations across all the other chapters.
The recently opened clusters do not have the same status, but they are crucial too.
"Clusters 2 and 3 form the economic core of Ukraine’s accession process and, in many respects, the economic core of our country’s transformation," Deputy Prime Minister Chentsov explained in Luxembourg. "The chapters we have opened now concern virtually every aspect of how the economy functions. This is about bringing our economies closer together, strengthening Europe’s competitiveness and building a more resilient European future. Today, we took another important step towards that goal."
The European Union has now officially committed to the gradual integration of candidate countries. A key element of this approach is granting them access to the tools and mechanisms of the single market even before they formally join the EU.
This will only be possible after economic reforms have been implemented – the reforms covered by Clusters 2 and 3.
A new priority for Ukraine
Ukrainian officials discussing EU accession used to emphasise that the main challenge was to open all the negotiating chapters.
This task was on the Ukrainian government’s agenda last year, but it proved impossible to accomplish back then because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had blocked Ukraine’s path to EU membership, rallying his electorate around the idea. With the recent change in the Hungarian government, the process has begun to move forward, but not immediately, and only gradually.
Throughout this period, Ukrainian diplomats were also working to ensure that the European Union did not decouple Ukraine and Moldova. The EU was receptive to this argument, so the two countries proceeded jointly through all the legal stages on the path to accession.
A future EU member must incorporate the provisions of the EU’s acquis communautaire into its national legislation. Within the framework of the negotiations, a candidate country can only demonstrate to the Europeans that certain provisions have been implemented and negotiate transitional periods or specific exemptions.
Each candidate country faces its own challenges along the way and has its own list of benchmarks that are set by the EU when each negotiating cluster is opened. Each country also conducts its negotiations with the EU separately, and progress depends on achievements – on the reforms implemented.
Therefore, once negotiations have begun across all clusters, keeping Ukraine and Moldova in sync will become less important. But until all the clusters are opened, the two countries will continue to be coupled.
Now a new factor has emerged that could put Moldova ahead of Ukraine.
This is the IBAR (Interim Benchmark Assessment Report), a decisive intermediate stage on the path to EU accession.
A special procedure applies to two chapters within the Fundamentals cluster – the rule of law, anti-corruption, human rights and related issues.
Ukraine has been given interim benchmarks for these clusters. Only after these have been met will the EU provide the final criteria for the chapters.
Most importantly, meeting the interim benchmarks gives a candidate country the right to begin closing negotiating chapters – that is, to receive official confirmation that Ukraine or Moldova meets the requirements for EU accession.
The IBAR report serves as that confirmation.
Two European Pravda sources say that Moldova is preparing to initiate its IBAR process, which could begin as early as November. This would automatically put Moldova ahead of Ukraine in their couple, since Ukraine has not yet reached this stage.
"Undoubtedly, the main priority for the government and parliament is to meet the interim benchmarks and secure a positive IBAR outcome. We are also eagerly awaiting the opening of the remaining two negotiating clusters," Chentsov said in Luxembourg.
However, when European Pravda asked a follow-up question about when Ukraine might achieve this, the deputy prime minister declined to make any prediction, saying "As soon as possible."
That makes sense, since the main tasks are largely beyond the government’s control.
The list of criteria Ukraine must meet to secure IBAR approval includes anti-corruption legislation, rule-of-law reforms, reform of the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) and other measures. All of these require decisions by the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. Bills addressing many of these issues have already been submitted, but have not yet been brought to a vote.
Vsevolod Chentsov has hinted that he sees room to negotiate compromises with Brussels.
It is not yet clear whether the EU is willing to make concessions on these reforms. However, any concessions are unlikely to be radical, as such an approach would not be acceptable to many EU member states.
Nevertheless, the fact that the deputy prime minister has frequently brought up the IBAR has not gone unnoticed in the European Union.
"This is the first time we have heard the Ukrainian government emphasise the IBAR, and that is a good thing. But we also need to see decisions, not just statements," one senior EU official told European Pravda.
During the most recent plenary weeks in parliament, anti-corruption bills have remained off the agenda despite repeated appeals from the EU, including a personal appeal by Ursula von der Leyen during a conversation with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to European Pravda sources, she received assurances from the Ukrainian leader that Kyiv does intend to implement these reforms.
It’s not just about Hungary
In discussing the IBAR, we shouldn’t lose sight of Ukraine’s earlier objective: opening the remaining negotiating clusters.
The new government of Péter Magyar blocked Ukraine’s progress for several months. Initially it imposed a veto without making any demands, echoing the bad old days of Viktor Orbán. Later, certain developments persuaded Budapest to change its approach. A constructive dialogue began, leading to a proposed solution: Ukraine would adopt amendments to its Law on Education, while the Hungarian government would present this as its own achievement to the Hungarian public and give the green light to further progress in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations.
Recent developments suggest that Hungary has indeed changed its approach to relations with Ukraine, at least for now.
The Hungarians were entirely constructive in the negotiations over the education law. And Prime Minister Péter Magyar, who has long avoided meeting the Ukrainian president, suddenly took the initiative himself, proposing talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Brussels. They are expected to meet on Friday.
But the next obstacle to Ukraine’s progress towards EU membership could be Romania.
For the last six months or so, Romania has been in political crisis. This made the prolonged absence of an official response particularly concerning, given that the draft education law had been sent to the Romanians as well as the Hungarians. Eventually, President Nicușor Dan publicly expressed his full support for the law, which has now been passed.
Meanwhile, the task of opening the remaining two clusters has not gone anywhere.
These negotiating blocks are considered the most politically sensitive.
Cluster 4 (Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity) also covers transport and the single market for services – issues that are sensitive for Poland.
Cluster 5, which deals with agriculture, is even more sensitive – and not just for Poland. The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy is widely considered to be long in need of reform. In particular, the current rules governing the distribution of agricultural subsidies would not be able to accommodate Ukraine’s integration. Brussels is therefore already exploring compromise options that would clear the way for Kyiv’s accession.
There are no concrete solutions yet, but everyone is committed to finding them.
"Ukraine will become part of the European agricultural policy, but under a special model. The EU member states and, of course, Ukraine will have to decide exactly what that model will look like," European Commissioner Marta Kos told European Pravda.
"I see no reason why we should not be able to reach an agreement and open the clusters by the end of this year," Deputy Prime Minister Chentsov added, reiterating Kyiv’s position: exemptions for Ukraine are possible, but they must be temporary rather than permanent.
The political debate on this issue is expected to take place this week at the EU summit, to which President Zelenskyy has also been invited.
Not all of the EU sources who spoke to European Pravda share the optimism that a solution will be found by the end of the year. Marta Kos has also been cautious in her forecasts, speaking of hope, not certainty.
Still, Ukraine’s main problem remains not the opening of the clusters, but the implementation of reforms.
Unless Ukraine meets the benchmarks – above all those covered by the IBAR – there will be no meaningful progress.
And a difference in rhetoric regarding Ukraine and Moldova is already evident.
At the European Commission and in EU capitals, Chișinău is being praised for fulfilling its commitments.
"Everything is going really well at the moment. We support Moldova’s ambition to become an EU member by 2030. And if we look at past experience, we can see that it is technically possible to conclude accession negotiations as early as the first or second quarter of 2028," Kos added.
No similar forecasts were made about Ukraine this time.
Also telling was the way the Irish presidency referred to progress on reforms in its official statement on the opening of the negotiations. "We encourage Ukraine to continue to implement necessary reforms, particularly in the area of Fundamentals," Thomas Byrne, Irish Minister of State for European Affairs, said as he announced the opening of the negotiating clusters for Ukraine.
Unless Ukraine speeds up the pace of reform, the gap could widen further. The IBAR issue clearly illustrates this trend.
Sergiy Sydorenko,
Editor, European Pravda, Luxembourg-Brussels
This article was produced within the framework of MOST – Media Organisations for Stronger Transnational Journalism, a Journalism Partnership funded by the Creative Europe programme that supports independent media specializing in international reporting