Why BBC investigation could become a "black swan" for the Georgian government
On 2 December, Georgian society was shaken by the publication of a BBC investigation revealing that banned chemical agents were used to disperse anti-government protests in 2024.
Following the publication, a full-blown hysteria erupted within the ranks of Georgian Dream.
The reaction was so emotional that the authorities unintentionally admitted parts of what the journalists had uncovered.
Georgia now faces the prospect of an investigation by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
Read more about the investigation and its potential consequences for the Georgian authorities in the article by Amiran Khevsuriani of the Georgian Technical University and Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Chemically on the way to The Hague: what consequences the BBC investigation could have for Georgia’s leadership.
The 58-minute BBC documentary "When Water Burns: The Fight for Georgia" shows that during the mass protests in 2024 triggered by the government effectively abandoning the country’s pro-European course, extremely dangerous chemical substances were used against protesters in Tbilisi.
At first, clearly caught off guard, government representatives responded by mockingly citing World War I.
They also blamed the "deep state," allegedly plotting against peaceful Georgia. And finally, they announced plans to launch legal action against the BBC in international courts.
Yet while the authorities initially flatly denied the use of banned chemical agents, they soon made a dramatic shift in tactics.
Former Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri, the official in charge during the protest crackdowns, was pushed forward. And here, the ruling party made a fatal mistake.
Gomelauri stated: "These substances they are talking about were indeed purchased by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and used but before 2012. If I’m not mistaken, the last purchase was in 2009 or 2010. After that, the ministry did not buy or use them."
By saying this, Gomelauri actually confirmed that the police had the very chemical substances the BBC reported on.
Later, the authorities seemed to realise the scale of their blunder and rushed to contain the fallout.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze admitted that chemical additives were used in water cannons and acknowledged the purchase of agents classified as UN 3439, though he adamantly denied that "Kamitus" was among them.
However, the problem is that within the UN 3439 classification, there are no substances considered safe for use against demonstrators, something the prime minister apparently did not know.
Clearly, difficult times await the top leadership of Georgian Dream.
Georgia is a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, signed in 1993 and in force since 29 April 1997. This obliges the country to comply with OPCW regulations; the organisation is headquartered in The Hague.
Refusing to cooperate with an investigation would only deepen suspicions and could open the door to sanctions and the outcome could even include international arrest warrants for the country’s leaders.
International justice also threatens the lower-level perpetrators, police officers who deployed chemical weapons against a peaceful rally. This introduces the possibility that, in the future, the police may refuse to carry out illegal orders.
And that is a scenario that appears deadly dangerous for Georgia’s followers of Vladimir Putin.