How Putin reacted to Armenia's EU choice and what he wants to achieve in Yerevan

Summoning an ambassador for consultations is one of the strongest diplomatic signals of a state's dissatisfaction with another country's actions. The only more serious steps are withdrawing the ambassador altogether, closing the embassy or severing diplomatic relations.

This is precisely the signal Russia sent to Armenia when it decided to summon its ambassador for consultations. Formally, the reason was "to discuss steps taken by the Armenian leadership aimed at closer relations with the European Union".

Read more to understand how and why Russia is increasing pressure on Armenia ahead of the parliamentary elections in the article by Yurii Panchenko, co-founder of European Pravda: Kremlin’s carrot and stick: how Putin is heading towards defeat in Armenia and what he plans afterwards.

Ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary elections, which are set to be held on 7 June, the Kremlin has intensified pressure on the country.

On 30 May, Russia introduced temporary restrictions on imports of berries and fresh vegetables from Armenia. Earlier, it had already restricted imports of mineral water, products from several Armenian brandy producers and flowers.

Nor did the Kremlin neglect its favourite economic weapon: gas.

"We have heard statements from the Armenian leadership that there is a very attractive and highly preferential price for Russian gas and Russian energy resources. That is indeed the case... But, of course, such a regime is impossible for participants in other integration frameworks," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

In addition, Russia is threatening Armenia with the cancellation of preferential railway freight tariffs and restrictions on labour migration.

And, of course, the threats are not limited to economics.

By claiming that Ukraine’s desire to move closer to the EU was one of the causes of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Putin is effectively threatening Armenia with a similar scenario.

The peak of this pressure came in the form of a joint statement from the summit of leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), calling on Armenia to hold a referendum as soon as possible on either joining the EU or remaining a member of the EAEU.

One might think Armenia has applied for EU membership, or at least is preparing to do so in the coming days. However, this is not the case.

Although Armenia passed a law last year initiating the process of EU accession, this had no practical consequences. The same applies to the European Political Community summit held in Yerevan in early May, as well as the first Armenia–EU summit.

At present, the Armenian government publicly speaks only of obtaining visa-free travel with the EU within the next few years. While the possibility of applying for EU membership is not ruled out, officials stress that this is not a matter for the near future.

Therefore, there are no grounds for holding a referendum now, as demanded by Russia and its allies.

The Kremlin’s public "punishment" of Armenia is intended to allow Moscow to claim success even in the face of unfavourable election results. It is also meant to send a message to other allies about what happens to those who attempt to leave Russia’s sphere of influence.

The latest opinion poll by Breavis, published on 31 May, predicts a convincing victory for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party, with around 65% of decided voters expected to support it.

Russia has been more active than ever in trying to influence the election campaign, backing Pashinyan's opponents. Chief among them is Strong Armenia, the party led by Russian-Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan.

Yet Strong Armenia is projected to win the support of only around 12% of voters, while other opposition parties are polling even lower.

These numbers leave Putin's allies with little chance of success. Moreover, Pashinyan is likely to benefit from the public endorsement he received from US President Donald Trump.

Washington's unexpected interest in elections in distant Armenia is linked to the signing of an agreement establishing the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity."

Meanwhile, the Armenian government has announced that it is developing a financial support programme for companies that, as a result of Russian trade restrictions, will be forced to rapidly redirect their exports toward EU markets.