Why a political crisis has erupted in Lithuania and whether it poses risks for Kyiv

Lithuania is experiencing a political crisis caused by tensions between President Gitanas Nausėda and the leader of the populist party Dawn of the Neman, Remigijus Žemaitaitis.

Žemaitaitis has declared the coalition effectively collapsed and voiced readiness for early elections.

Read more about whether this political crisis could push Lithuania toward early parliamentary elections and how it could affect Ukraine in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: President vs. critics of Ukraine: will the far-right leave Lithuania’s ruling coalition?

On 15 September, President Nausėda rejected two ministerial nominees from Dawn of the Neman, arguing they could not truly be considered independent.

According to the coalition agreement, the party was to delegate two independent, non-partisan specialists to the government, as well as relinquish the post of parliamentary speaker.

These special conditions were imposed last year when Dawn of the Neman joined the coalition, since many were reluctant to work with it, especially President Nausėda. The significant concessions made by the party resolved the situation at the time.

This time, however, the party demanded more and nominated Povilas Poderskis (for environment minister) and Mindaugas Jablonskis (for energy minister).

Aware that the nominees were not truly independent, Dawn of the Neman likely tried to game the process by submitting them only at the last minute.

The populist leader intends to resubmit the rejected candidates to Nausėda and, if vetoed again, threatens to withdraw from the coalition.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė made a bold countermove by meeting with Saulius Skvernelis, leader of the Democratic Union For Lithuania. While she emphasised that the possible return of the Democrats to the coalition was not discussed, the very fact of the meeting signals such an option.

According to media reports, an informal offer from the prime minister to the Democrats would compensate the loss of the speaker’s post with an additional ministry and two deputy speaker positions.

Another option is a minority government backed by the Democrats – a possibility already voiced by Ruginienė.

The coming days will show how realistic it is to relaunch Lithuania’s government without the far right.

However, even if Dawn of the Neman exits the coalition, another force hostile to Ukraine would remain inside it: the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance, which joined during the last coalition reshuffle.

This party is known as virtually the only openly pro-Putin political force in Lithuania.

Still, with only three seats in the Seimas, the pro-Putin Poles are not seen as a real threat.

This is why a coalition reshuffle and the removal of the far right looks like a scenario clearly beneficial for Ukraine.

For now, the likelihood of early elections seems low.

But if the conflict continues, the ruling Social Democratic Party will face only two options: reshuffling the coalition (which faces internal resistance) or new elections.