How to Measure Ukraine's Progress on the Way to EU Membership

Tuesday, 31 January 2023

Joining the European Union for many Ukrainians is a heated but somewhat unclear debate. When will Ukraine join the EU? How can we at least vaguely understand that it is ready to join the EU?

Any country that satisfies the conditions for membership can apply. These conditions are known as the Copenhagen criteria. They are simple and complex at the same time.

Simple because the list is not long. The applicant country must have a stable democracy and the rule of law, a functioning market economy, and the acceptance of all EU legislation, including of the euro.

Complex because they are not measurable. For example, what is a "stable democracy"? How to determine when the economy becomes "competitive in the EU market"? How to understand that the EU is "capable of integrating a new member"? The Copenhagen criteria do not answer these and many other questions.

The accession process is divided into 35 sections and six clusters. There are conditions for opening and closing negotiations for each chapter, which determine the status of compliance with the criteria.

In fact, the European Commission regularly assesses the progress of the candidate countries and provides targeted recommendations to meet the Copenhagen criteria.

Ukraine's first assessment within the Expansion Package framework is scheduled for the autumn.

In addition, seven requirements, granted simultaneously with EU candidacy, are designed to help Ukraine meet the Copenhagen criteria.

The Copenhagen criteria and the requirements granted to candidate states on the way to membership are closely connected.

Six of the seven requirements granted by the European Commission are indirectly related to improving Ukraine's economy.

But how can we assess progress without the official evaluations of the European Commission? We should look up the state's position in internationally recognised ratings.

These include the Corruption Perceptions Index, the Rule of Law Index, the World Freedom Index, and the Economic Freedom Index. It is also undeniable that you can measure macroeconomic indicators: GDP growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, etc.

We often hear that Ukraine needs to meet a large number of criteria. However, Ukraine has just begun its journey.

Ukraine received candidate status in June and there is still much to be done.

Many countries that once joined the EU had to find themselves in a similar situation.

For example, Croatia is an example of the most recent EU enlargement in 2013. Or Bulgaria and Romania, which joined the Union in 2007.

If we look at their indicators, their starting positions were relatively the same as in Ukraine.

The most important is that during the negotiations, Ukraine can significantly improve its positions and continue to improve them already in the EU.

Ukraine needs to realise that joining the European Union is not a goal. The main thing is to carry out reforms and achieve an appropriate level of welfare in the country. Some EU member states have stopped their development after joining the Union.

Ukraine should avoid such a scenario and continue to grow even after joining the European Union.

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