An opinion poll was conducted by Info Sapiens on behalf of the New Europe Center (NEC) from 13 to 21 November 2023. There were already many sceptical signals from Western partners back then, so it is especially interesting how Ukrainians reacted to them.

Sergiy Sydorenko, EuroPravda's editor, has analysed the research results. Read more in his article Global Leaders and Countries Gaining and Losing Ukrainians' Trust: Change over a Year

So, which Western leaders do Ukrainians trust the most?

The list was topped by US President Joe Biden, with 82% of respondents saying they "completely trust" him or have "some trust" in him. In second place is Polish President Andrzej Duda with 77%. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tied in third and fourth place (both 74%).

While this list itself may not be surprising, the changes over the past year are extremely interesting.

The survey results are equally interesting when it comes to Ukraine's enemies and unfriendly states.

Putin and Lukashenko are, of course, anti-leaders who inspire almost total distrust among Ukrainians. Chinese leader Xi Jinping ranks third, with 85% of Ukrainians saying they mostly or completely distrust him. Distrust in China, as represented by him, has increased by 12% over the year.

Coming in a "respectable" fourth is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, with 78% distrust (+9 over the year). The top five is rounded off by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, with 61% distrust (+14!).

So are Ukrainians ready to sacrifice their future for NATO or the EU? And what will they choose if full NATO membership is not yet achievable?

67% of Ukrainians consider the possibility of refusing to join NATO or declaring Ukraine's neutrality in exchange for peace with Russia to be unacceptable or highly undesirable (57% vs 10%). Only 12% of respondents find this option completely acceptable.

71% of the respondents oppose making concessions to Russia on Ukraine’s EU membership (61% consider this totally unacceptable and 10% undesirable), and only 11% would agree to support this.

Other suggestions that are often heard from Russian propagandists are completely rejected by Ukrainians.

Given that the swift liberation of the occupied territories does not look realistic, Ukrainians were also asked about the best interim option for security guarantees until the entire territory is liberated.

The "favourite" option among Ukrainians is one advocated by several Western friends of Ukraine. The expert community often call it the "West German scenario", while opponents more commonly refer to it as "NATO accession in parts". It involves full NATO membership with security guarantees for the territory Ukraine currently controls, while the rest of Ukraine would be under the Alliance's umbrella in the future after de-occupation.

Additionally, the survey results also indicate that Ukrainians have an idealised view of the state of our relationship with NATO, as can be seen in their expectations of the upcoming NATO summit.

There may also be some positives to the single-minded focus on NATO.

There may also be some positives to the single-minded focus on NATO. Ukrainians already consider themselves part of the collective security system and are ready to contribute to assist their partners even now, while a full-scale war is raging. When asked "Should Ukraine provide assistance to the US and Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan?" almost half of respondents (47%) answered "Definitely", and only 4% said no on the grounds that "China is our strategic partner".

This unity may not remove every obstacle on Ukraine's path to the Alliance, but it certainly helps Ukraine demonstrate that it is part of a common security space.