How Ukrainian refugees could influence Poland’s presidential election
Poland will elect a new president on 18 May.
Since the last presidential election in 2020, the world has turned upside down: Europe’s biggest challenge is no longer COVID-19, but Russian aggression.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to seek refuge abroad, with Poland emerging as the country that initially took in the largest number of Ukrainian refugees.
Whether the presence of nearly one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland could influence the election results is the subject of a column by Daria Mykhailyshyna, Senior Economist of the Centre for Economic Strategy, and David Zuchowski, Associate Professor of Rovira i Virgili University in Spain – Ukrainians are changing Poland: why anti-Ukrainian rhetoric didn’t work everywhere.
To answer this question, the authors examined past elections and migration data on Ukrainians in Poland.
Their research found that as early as the 2015 parliamentary elections, the presence of Ukrainian labour migrants led to reduced support for conservative parties, which have traditionally opposed immigration.
"In regions with a higher share of Ukrainian migrants, unemployment declined and average wages increased. This shows the positive impact of migration on the Polish labour market – a benefit voters recognised by supporting parties with more open stances on migration," note Mykhailyshyna and Zuchowski.
They point out that the influence of Ukrainian migrants on local political preferences persisted in the 2019 elections.
This time, the presence of Ukrainians significantly boosted support for parties advocating greater economic redistribution, including higher taxes and expanded social benefits.
The next parliamentary elections took place in 2023, after the Russian invasion had escalated.
In those elections, according to the authors, radical anti-Ukrainian parties suffered major losses in regions with larger Ukrainian populations.
These findings align with the "contact hypothesis" developed by American psychologist Gordon Allport, which suggests that prolonged contact between members of different groups improves intergroup relations.
Thus, in regions with more Ukrainians – and more direct communication between Ukrainians and Poles – far-right sentiment has declined compared to areas where Poles have limited personal contact with Ukrainians.
"As a result, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric among the far-right has grown louder, but promoting it has become harder. These messages gain traction mainly in regions with fewer Ukrainian refugees – where most Poles hear about Ukraine only through the media or political statements, not from Ukrainians themselves," the authors explain.
In conclusion, the presence of one million Ukrainian refugees may reduce the chances of anti-Ukrainian forces and positively shape Polish voters’ political choices in the upcoming presidential election.