Why Poland’s largest opposition party could disappear and what that would mean

Dark clouds are gathering over Jarosław Kaczyński’s party, Law and Justice (PiS).

He must save the party and maintain its position in Polish politics.

The party under Kaczyński ruled from 2005 to 2007 and again from 2015 to 2023. Moreover, its leader brought two politicians into the presidential palace: his twin brother Lech Kaczyński and Andrzej Duda.

It was Jarosław Kaczyński who built up PiS's potential, shifted its ideology, fought internal opponents and shaped the mainstream of Poland’s conservative right.

But public sentiment is shifting, and the long-standing divide on the political scene, between the parties of current Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Jarosław Kaczyński, has become increasingly frustrating for many.

Read more about what changes the upcoming presidential elections in Poland might bring in the article by Michał Kaciewicz, a Biełsat journalist – Kaczyński’s decisive battle: what threatens Poland’s former ruling party and its leader.

Jarosław Kaczyński hung a billboard on the fence of his home in Warsaw promoting Karol Nawrocki, the PiS-backed presidential candidate.

The poster states that Nawrocki is supported by PiS, even though he previously insisted he was a non-partisan civic candidate.

Kaczyński is going all in, and Nawrocki is his bet. The idea to nominate the head of the Institute of National Remembrance as the right-wing candidate came from the PiS leader himself.

Nawrocki is an attempt to replicate the successful experiment from eight years ago with Andrzej Duda, though this time the move is much bolder.

He's also betting on a relatively unknown, young, and inexperienced politician.

While Duda may not have been widely known either, he did have experience in political work.

Nawrocki does not. He is trying to become a "Duda encore," but lacks certain natural personal traits and the ability to win over less politically engaged voters.

Incidentally, Andrzej Duda has disappointed Kaczyński. It’s no secret that their relationship is rather cold and that they barely speak.

Additionally, Marcin Mastalerek has emerged within the president’s circle, now serving as secretary of the presidential administration.

Mastalerek openly stated that for the good of the Law and Justice party, Kaczyński must step down from leadership. He is currently working with members of the even more far-right and nationalist Confederation party to build a new right-wing bloc on the ruins of PiS.

So today, the most threatening dark cloud over Law and Justice is the far-right Confederation party.

When the poll numbers for Confederation’s presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen suddenly surged and came dangerously close to Karol Nawrocki’s, panic spread through PiS.

Although recent polls show Mentzen’s numbers have dropped, Kaczyński cannot ignore the fact that Confederation has grown into a stable and strong competitor to PiS – popular among youth, more radical, and more dynamic.

Now, Kaczyński’s new, and possibly final, mission is to rebuild PiS’s monopoly on the political right.