Latvian intelligence detects provocations and surveillance by Russia in Baltic Sea region

Russia has stepped up its surveillance of NATO’s military activity in the Baltic Sea and is carrying out shows of force and provocations, according to a report by Latvia’s Defence Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD) assessing Russia’s military activity near Latvia.

As reported by Delfi, the threat assessment and annual review released by the service state that Russia is engaging in acts of provocation and intimidation, such as unauthorised airspace violations and aggressive approaches towards NATO aircraft and vessels, increasing the risk of accidental military incidents.

The aim of such provocations is likely to intimidate and test the reactions of potential adversaries. At the same time, the report notes that attempts to discredit regional states and undermine their defence capabilities cannot be ruled out.

Latvian intelligence reports that in 2024, as part of a reform of Russia’s Armed Forces, the Western Military District – which borders Latvia – was reorganised into the newly formed Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts. MIDD explains that this was officially presented as a response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

The report also notes that, alongside the war in Ukraine, Russia has begun, at least formally, creating new units and reorganising existing ones as part of its declared military reform plan.

For example, a new army corps has been formed in Karelia, and two motorised rifle brigades belonging to the 6th Combined Arms Army – stationed closest to Latvia – are to be transformed into divisions. A marine brigade of the Baltic Fleet, based in the Kaliningrad enclave, is also to be upgraded to a division.

However, MIDD emphasises that the creation or expansion of these units does not currently indicate a real increase in military power near Latvia’s borders, as the bulk of Russia’s military resources remain focused on the war in Ukraine.

The report also highlights that since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces have faced limitations not only in strategic exercises but also in operational-tactical drills, likely due to shortages of personnel and equipment.

Russia and Belarus are expected to hold joint strategic drills called Zapad-2025 later this year, primarily on Belarusian territory. However, the scale and scope of the exercises will largely depend on the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

At the same time, the intelligence service stresses that under current conditions, Russia lacks the capability to launch another full-scale strategic land operation.

Media reports have previously noted growing concerns among Europeans that while efforts focus on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Russians are quietly increasing activity along other parts of their border with Europe.

It has also been reported that the overwhelming majority of Germans fear Russia may attack other European countries.