What should Ukraine expect from Poland's new president?
On 6 August, Poland holds the inauguration of its newly elected president, Karol Nawrocki.
During his election campaign, the new president actively employed anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, suggesting that his term will likely present challenges for Ukraine.
Is there any reason to hope that Nawrocki’s harsh stance on Ukraine will remain in the past, and that he might act more prudently in office? Most importantly, do the political changes in Poland threaten its support for Ukraine in the war against Russia?
Read more in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor, who interviewed Wojciech Rafalowski, associate professor at the University of Warsaw’s Department of Political Sociology: An unfriendly president: how Karol Nawrocki will change Poland and what Ukraine should expect.
Karol Nawrocki could become a president with whom cooperation will be quite difficult. He holds strong right-wing convictions, but has limited political experience.
Due to his unpredictability stemming from this lack of experience, the composition of his team will play a significant role.
The head of the presidential chancellery will be Zbigniew Bogucki (an MP from the opposition party Law and Justice (PiS). This is a relatively good choice, Rafalowski notes, since Bogucki is a moderate figure within PiS and might become the more balanced and calm face of Nawrocki’s presidency.
Notably, the new president’s team is closely tied to the Law and Justice party. However, Nawrocki might still be more independent from PiS than his predecessor, Andrzej Duda, was.
Foreign policy may prove more complicated. Typically, the president of Poland holds only a symbolic role in international affairs.
But this time, it might be different because Nawrocki enjoys strong electoral legitimacy. As he himself says: "Millions of voters stand behind me, so I have the right to act on what matters to them."
A key difference between Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk lies in Nawrocki’s admiration for Donald Trump. Like Trump, Nawrocki views the progressive and liberal EU elite negatively.
The Ukraine issue will be the most difficult.
As a historian specialising in Polish-Ukrainian historical relations, Nawrocki could use historical arguments to shape current policies between Poland and Ukraine.
He might attempt to set conditions for further aid to Kyiv. Even if these are merely symbolic, they could still complicate bilateral relations.
However, Rafalowski expresses hope that Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski will be able to coordinate foreign policy between the government and the president.
And although Nawrocki will likely present himself as tougher and more principled than PM Tusk, there are reasons to believe that practical relations may be better than the rhetoric suggests.
Donald Trump may influence Nawrocki’s stance on Ukraine. As we’ve seen recently, Trump has softened his position on Ukraine. If Nawrocki wants to remain aligned with Trump, he might follow suit.
Still, this does not change the fact that pro-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland has weakened significantly. As a result, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is now a viable political strategy, something the far-right group Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Polish Crown is actively exploiting.