Former Ukrainian ambassador on Lukashenko's success with Trump, policy toward Belarus and EU's firmness
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has every reason to consider himself a winner.
Thanks to concessions from US President Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus managed to break out of diplomatic isolation and even to get rid of some sanctions.
Europe’s position, however, turned out to be completely opposite to that of the United States.
How such contradictory Western policies affect Lukashenko’s regime, what this may mean for Ukraine, and how Kyiv can strengthen its policy on the Belarusian track was explained to European Pravda by Ihor Kyzym, former Ukrainian ambassador to Belarus. Earlier this year, he left the diplomatic service and therefore can afford to give more candid answers than in an official capacity.
The key points are summarised in the article Good cop Trump: will the West ease sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime".
The main reason for the current rapprochement with the US is Donald Trump’s desire to demonstrate success on the humanitarian front.
Like it or not, the political prisoners released today by Lukashenko are freed not simply out of goodwill, but in exchange for some suspension of sanctions.
So yes, one can speak of Lukashenko’s success, since the exchange took place on his terms.
He broke through the diplomatic blockade. Top US officials now visit him, bringing gifts from Trump. And ultimately, he succeeded in having sanctions lifted. For example, Belarus is now allowed to purchase spare parts for Boeing aircraft.
Most importantly, Lukashenko bargained for US attention not even in exchange for genuine releases (some prisoners, by the way, were already nearing the end of their sentences), but rather for the de facto deportation of potentially dangerous people from the country.
Still, this is limited joy, since pressure will continue, and Lukashenko fears releasing everyone.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is underperforming on the Belarus issue in several areas.
It needs to engage more actively with the Belarusian opposition and should have long ago invited Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to Ukraine, as well as reconsider conditions for Belarusians who fled Lukashenko’s regime.
Also, Ukraine should coordinate its sanctions with the EU and exert joint pressure on Lukashenko. I must stress: we are acting too late in this direction.
At the same time, European policy is becoming increasingly independent from American policy, including on Belarus.
The EU is demonstrating that while Trump can make promises, real steps toward lifting sanctions depend on Europe.
The fact that Poland is now closing its border with Belarus is, in a sense, Europe’s response. Brussels now reacts normally to this and does not block the Poles.
Closing borders is a very serious step. And a serious blow to Lukashenko.
After 2014, when Ukraine effectively stopped serving as a transit country, Belarus became the key transit hub for Chinese and Russian goods into Europe.
The fact that, after Poland’s decision to close the border, Chinese high-ranking officials are coming to Belarus shows that in their logic, whatever the reason for Poland’s move, it was Belarus that let its partners down, as it failed to fulfill its role as a transit hub for Chinese goods.
Accordingly, questions arise as to whether Belarus is acting wisely at the moment.
As for Belarus’s full participation in the aggression against Ukraine, this is unlikely to happen, though it will continue to assist the Russian army.