Why Tusk's coalition is cracking and what Poland's new president has to do with it
Polish politics once again smells of a looming crisis.
The arena for clashing political visions has become the Central Communication Port (CCP) – the largest unfinished infrastructure project of the previous government, launched under the Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Thanks to President Karol Nawrocki, backed by the opposition Law and Justice party, the project has been revived.
In parliament, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition expected to quickly "sink" the bill, but it didn’t work out due to some coalition members’ votes.
Read more about the cracks within Donald Tusk’s coalition and the opportunities this opens for Poland’s opposition in the article by international affairs expert Stanislav Zhelikhovsky: An uprising against Tusk? Why Poland’s coalition is closer than ever to collapse.
The Central Communication Port (CCP) is a Polish megaproject originally developed under Law and Justice (though the idea predates them) as a symbol of a "great Poland" breaking through on the infrastructure front.
But for PiS, CCP is not only an infrastructure project, it is also a political one.
During his election campaign, Karol Nawrocki, then an independent candidate supported by PiS, declared that he wanted to restore the project to the original concept envisioned by Jarosław Kaczyński’s party.
For Donald Tusk’s current government, CCP is a serious challenge.
On the one hand, pouring billions into a megaproject may look irresponsible in times of security threats. On the other hand, a categorical "no" could alienate moderate voters who want to see Poland modern, competitive, and integrated with Europe.
The CCP issue has called into question the very existence of the coalition, which is unstable to begin with.
This was evident in the 26 September vote, when the Sejm rejected the Left’s proposal to dismiss the president’s CCP bill at first reading.
The results revealed internal fractures within the majority.
Among those who voted against were nine MPs from Poland 2050 (a junior coalition partner), including the movement’s leader and Marshal (Speaker) of the Sejm, Szymon Hołownia.
The current situation around Hołownia deserves special attention, as he has openly spoken of his new political ambitions.
It is worth recalling that in autumn 2023 Hołownia was appointed Speaker of the Sejm not for the full term but only for two years – in autumn 2025 he must step down in favor of a representative of the Left.
The speakership was meant to boost Hołownia’s chances in the presidential election, but his candidacy flopped.
His current low ratings, and those of his party, raise questions about their political future.
Against this backdrop, the Speaker of the Sejm announced that he had applied for the post of UN High Commissioner for Refugees – though even he admits he doesn’t believe he’ll get it.
It seems the Speaker is trying to leave himself a backup option: in case of escalating internal strife within the coalition, he may look for new horizons, not only in Warsaw, but also in international institutions.
Events in the Sejm and the Speaker’s new ambitions have shown that the coalition resembles more of a temporary pact than a solid union, with cracks that can hardly be covered up even by the finest words of unity.
And each new crack is an opportunity for the opposition, which dreams of splitting the coalition.
The conflict between President Nawrocki and Tusk’s government clearly does not strengthen Polish-Ukrainian cooperation.
And more importantly, for now, the upper hand in this conflict belongs to the president who is far more critical of Ukraine.