How Russian energy still reaches the EU and how Brussels plans to stop it
In response to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine and the resulting disruptions in the global energy market, the European Commission adopted the RePowerEU action plan, the main goal of which is a gradual but complete rejection of Russian fossil fuel imports.
To achieve this goal, the plan envisions accelerating the diversification of oil and gas supply routes, developing green energy, and promoting energy-saving consumption.
Read more about how the EU plans to put an end to its energy dependence on Moscow and how much Russia stands to lose from this in the article by Razom We Stand expert Kateryna Kontsur: The €27 billion question: how the EU is moving toward giving up Russian oil and gas.
The EU quickly diversified its energy imports, setting the goal of ending supplies from Russia. Ukraine, for its part, will completely halt gas transit from 2025.
The total share of Russian gas (liquefied natural gas, LNG, and pipeline gas) in EU gas imports has decreased from 45% in the pre-war years to 13% in the second quarter of 2025.
Norway has now become the main supplier of pipeline gas to the EU.
According to RePowerEU, the EU plans to completely stop importing Russian gas and oil by the end of 2027.
At the same time, imports of Russian liquefied gas have increased during the war.
The largest importers of Russian LNG in the EU are France, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium. From Belgium, further deliveries are made by pipelines to Germany and other EU countries.
Two-thirds of LNG supplies from Russia are carried out under long-term contracts, which makes their urgent termination difficult. Another third are spot or short-term contracts.
According to Razom We Stand estimates, Russia will lose up to €5 billion annually due to the ban on spot or short-term contracts in the EU from 1 January 2026, and about €15 billion after a complete ban on all imports (both pipeline and LNG) from 1 January 2027.
These deadlines have been proposed by the European Parliament in the draft RePowerEU Regulation, which will be put to a vote in the second half of October 2025. The European Parliament and the EU Council (member states) will have to reach an agreement on the final text after approving their negotiating mandates.
The EU Council, under the presidency of Denmark, intends to approve the changes by the end of the year. The European Parliament also seeks to adopt them as soon as possible, overcoming the strong gas lobby of major importers.
According to Eurostat, in the first quarter of 2021, Russia was the largest supplier of oil and oil products to the EU. However, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, significant changes took place in the EU’s oil trade (among all oil imported to the EU, only 2% is Russian as of the second quarter of 2025).
There are, however, important exceptions, Hungary and Slovakia. As of today, Hungary’s annual contribution to the aggressor country’s military budget amounts to €2.2 billion, Slovakia’s to €1.9 billion and together that’s €4.1 billion annually spent on sponsoring the war.
The exception from the European oil embargo for these two countries may be lifted as early as 1 January 2026, if the European Parliament’s amendments to the RePowerEU Regulation are adopted.
In addition, since 2023, Türkiye has become a shadow hub for the re-export of Russian petroleum products. With tighter controls over the origin of oil products, Russia could lose from €4 billion (if the measures are implemented only by the EU) to €8 billion per year (if coordinated action is taken at the G7 level with the participation of the US, Japan, and South Korea).
Thus, the impact of RePowerEU restrictions in the event of a full EU phase-out of LNG and pipeline gas (both spot and long-term contracts), oil, and re-exported petroleum products from Russia is estimated at €23-27 billion per year.