Will Czechia turn into a "second Hungary" after the elections and who can prevent it?
On 3–4 October, parliamentary elections are set to be held in Czechia, and all forecasts agree on one thing: the opposition party ANO, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, is to come first. This would give him a real chance to return to the post of Czech prime minister.
Many in Czechia (and beyond) see Babiš’s victory as the beginning of a shift in the country’s foreign policy.
"We see the creation of a coalition that is preparing a government of national betrayal, for whom Brussels is worse than Moscow and which will not care about the security of Czechia," said Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala.
However, such an unpleasant scenario is not inevitable. Moreover, in the final days before the elections, the likelihood has grown that there will not be a significant correction of Czechia's foreign course even if Babiš wins.
Read more about what influences the political balance in Czechia and what these parliamentary elections could change in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: A chance for Russia, a threat to the armed forces: why elections in Chechia matter so much for Ukraine.
Recent Ipsos polls give ANO up to 32.6%, while only about 21.1% of Czechs are ready to vote for its main opponent – the Spolu (Together) bloc led by Prime Minister Fiala.
The main risk lies not so much in ANO’s victory itself (after all, the party includes quite a few pro-European and pro-Ukrainian politicians), but in who might become its coalition partner.
Despite Babiš’s claims that they plan to secure a majority of votes on their own, no poll predicts that ANO will achieve a parliamentary majority – either independently or together with Motorists for Themselves, the only party that openly declares readiness to ally with them.
None of the governing parties is considering not only forming a coalition with ANO but even supporting a minority government under Babiš.
Given this situation, the only potential coalition partners for Babiš are extremist forces.
These are the far-right SPD of Tomio Okamura (polls place it fourth with 10.1% support) and the far-left bloc Stačilo! (Enough!; 7.7%), formed by Czech communists together with several other leftist groups.
Both SPD and Stačilo! are the only political forces that openly call for halting aid to Ukraine and ending the war on Putin’s terms.
If either of these political forces enters a coalition with ANO or supports a Babiš government without formally joining the coalition, Czechia could indeed become a close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in opposing Brussels.
Fortunately, such a development has a powerful opponent.
On 30 September, Czech President Petr Pavel appealed to voters, urging them to support political forces that would ensure the next government "protects our sovereignty and does not leave us at the mercy of Russia and its ambition to restore its sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe."
By doing so, the Czech president reaffirmed his earlier position: he will not approve the formation of a coalition that includes extremist parties.
Another positive development is that in recent weeks, public sentiment in Czech society has also shifted – not in Russia’s favour.
News of unidentified drones appearing over European airports, along with other Russian military provocations, has changed the mood both among ordinary Czechs and politicians.
Thus, despite all the risks (which remain considerable) and the efforts of Putin’s friends, the Czech elections may turn out to be far less problematic for us than previously feared.