Letter to EU leaders from von der Leyen points to late 2026 as possible end of war in Ukraine
When planning financial assistance for Ukraine for 2026 and 2027, the European Commission is currently assuming that Russia's war against Ukraine will end in late 2026, according to a letter from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to EU leaders dated 17 November.
"The scale of Ukraine's financing gap is significant. According to preliminary projections from the International Monetary Fund – assuming the war ends by late 2026 and already accounting for all support pledged by the EU, member states and international partners – Ukraine will still face a massive shortfall that cannot be bridged without injecting new funding," the letter from von der Leyen reads.
Von der Leyen reiterated that in October 2025, the European Council committed to "addressing Ukraine's pressing financing needs for 2026-2027, including for its military and defence efforts".
The president of the European Commission outlined four key parameters for providing financial assistance to Ukraine:
- Funding must be rapidly available, with first disbursements effective by the beginning of the second quarter of 2026.
- Any new financial package must safeguard Ukraine's debt sustainability. It should ensure that it does not create an additional fiscal burden for the country.
- Funding must be flexible enough to cater for the significant uncertainties of Ukraine 's precise financing needs in the years.
- There should be fair burden sharing with international partners.
On 17 November, France's Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad, speaking on the sidelines of the General Affairs Council in Brussels, outlined conditions set by French President Emmanuel Macron regarding the provision of reparations loans to Ukraine based on Russia's frozen assets.
According to the European Commission's estimates, Ukraine will need more than €71 billion in external financing in 2026, of which over €51 billion will be directed towards military needs.
The EU's plan for such a reparations loan for Ukraine has stalled due to objections from Belgium, where the bulk of Russian assets in the EU are held, and which fears legal consequences from such a decision.
EU representatives stress that the issue of using Russia's frozen assets to financially support Ukraine remains on the agenda, and a final decision will be taken in December 2025.