Three and a half days.

It took that long for Putin's U-turn to officially restore Russia's participation in the so-called "grain deal." This happened primarily because of Turkish pressure. Turkish President Erdoğan won the most in the new agreements with Putin.

Looking ahead, let us assure you: Ukraine is another winner.

However, the public statements of the Turkish side made many doubt this. Ankara sounded like it wanted more from Kyiv... However, Ukraine did not fulfill any of the Russian demands.

What happened?

The grain corridor, which Russia wanted to suspend and destroy last weekend, is back to business under previous conditions. On November 2, Russia publicly announced that it was resuming its activities under the "grain deal."

Türkiye, the UN, and Ukraine stopped the movement across the grain corridor for one day on Tuesday evening and then formally restored it with Russia's participation.

And on Wednesday, Russia and Türkiye simultaneously announced restarting of the agreement.

But its details remained to be clarified. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly stated on Saturday that one of the conditions for Russia's return to the agreement is inking guarantees of no repetition of Black Sea attacks.

As the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu mentioned Russia's concerns about its fertiliser and grain exports, "which are not on the list of sanctions, but the ships that are carrying these still cannot dock" due to fears of sanctions and attacks on ports.

So when Russia announced that its demands had been met and it was returning to the "grain deal," the question arose: which of the demands of the Russian Federation did the West and Ukraine agree to fulfill? Kyiv's first comments on this matter did not make it clear. They only announced that Russia's blackmail was unsuccessful.

Let us remind you how exactly the "grain deal" was born and what preceded Russia's "withdrawal." That's why Putin so urgently agreed to return to it.

Putin-style blackmail

The "Black Sea Grain Initiative" is a quadrilateral agreement between Ukraine, Türkiye, the United Nations, and Russia, signed in Istanbul on July 22, 2022. The agreement created procedures to safely export grain from three Ukrainian ports (Pivdenny, Odesa, Chornomorsk) under the joint control of four parties.

The deal was brokered by the UN and Türkiye, bringing to an end a five-month Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports that trapped millions of tonnes of grain and sunflower oil and sent food prices soaring. For the UN, this is generally the main job. For Turkish President Erdoğan, it is a matter of his prestige and authority as a regional leader.

Russia initially did not want to support the "grain deal" and agreed to it under international pressure. And in the future, the Kremlin emphasised any time they were not interested in the grain corridor.

And on October 29, following the successful drone attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Black Sea fleet based at Sevastopol in Crimea, Moscow used this situation and announced its withdrawal from the "grain agreement."

The attack on the Black Sea Fleet and the withdrawal from the "grain agreement" have no legal or logical connection. But Russia linked them at the official level - in the statements of the Defence Ministry and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. This was Moscow's first significant international mistake in this story.

Russia, in reality, admitted that it was withdrawing from the grain initiative to take revenge on Ukraine.

But Moscow continued to bury itself in lies: its Ministry of Foreign Affairs told that Ukraine, they say, attacked ships that ensured the operation of the grain corridor. However, nobody will buy it except Russian television. After all, the international partners of the Russian Federation knew that according to the "grain deal," Russian warships were prohibited from participating in the "convoy" of ships with grain and even approaching the grain corridor.

Then Russia announced that Ukraine had attacked Sevastopol from the grain corridor. They could not spot the drones in time because they considered the corridor safe.

Erdoğan vs Putin

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the "grain deal" is one of the foundations of his international strength.

Ukrainian agricultural production is indeed critically important for global food security. The Asian and North African states import grain. That's why Türkiye and Erdoğan matter to them. The fact that Erdoğan brokered and guaranteed safe supplies from Ukraine raises his international weight to another level.

So Putin's "revenge" on Ukraine turned out to be revenge on Erdoğan.

Although Türkiye is usually balanced and soft in foreign policy, Ankara responded to Moscow's rudeness harshly and asymmetrically this time.

Publicly, Türkiye kept stating the "need to find compromises" and "restraint on both sides." In fact, it agreed with the hawks' proposal to throw Russia out of the "grain deal" and show Putin that everything works without Russia.

European Pravda wrote about this mechanism on Sunday, and it worked exactly as it was supposed to. At first, only loaded tankers from the "grain corridor" began to pass through the Bosphorus Strait, and all verified merchant ships got permission to move through the Black Sea. And then - and this is the most important thing! - the admission of new bulkers to the Black Sea began.

Russia got a signal: it is no longer needed. Everything works well without it. Moreover, it turned out that everything works even better without it: in the last month, the joint coordination groups inspected a maximum of eight vessels per day, then on Tuesday, without Russian participation, Ukraine, Türkiye, and the UN let 46 ships per day to enter and exit the grain corridor!

At the same time, several rounds of negotiations between the ministers of defence and the heads of foreign affairs of Türkiye and Russia took place, during which representatives of Erdoğan's team seem to have sent clear signals that an attempt to attack Ukrainian ports from the "grain corridor" or, even more so, civilian ships, will not go unpunished.

They realised how much Putin "outplayed" himself in Russia, withdrawing from the "grain deal."

Return conditions

On Thursday, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stated that "our state has not made any new commitments that would go beyond the existing ones in the grain deal."

"Moscow has returned to the grain deal thanks to the active diplomacy of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Erdoğan. In coordination with Ukraine, they found words that Putin understood. It was a position of strength, not concessions," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko.

Even Putin stated that Ukraine did not make any new promises to Russia as part of the "revival" of the grain corridor.

On Wednesday, he admitted that Kyiv's only promise was the readiness to fulfill the old July agreement.

However, there is another important feature in which the "new grain deal" is really different from the old one. True, it was concluded only as a verbal and publicly announced agreement of the leaders of Türkiye and the Russian Federation, but it can be even more reliable.

So, Putin agreed with Erdoğan on the conditions that would apply if Russia withdrew from the agreement again.

"We will not hinder in the future, in any case, the supply of grain from the territory of Ukraine to the Republic of Türkiye, (considering) Türkiye's neutrality in the conflict as a whole … the possibilities of the grain processing industry of the Republic of Türkiye and the efforts of President (Recep Tayyip) Erdoğan aimed at ensuring the interests of the poorest countries," President Putin presented this.

Türkiye also points out the guarantee of the grain supply from Ukraine by the Turkish fleet under any conditions.

The current "grain deal" expires on November 20, and Russia still has no confirmation that it will extend it.

Most likely, Putin will make his final decision on the future agreement at the G20 summit in Indonesia on November 15-16. Until then, the world remains uncertain.

For Putin, this is a win-win lever. He will wait for all the leaders to persuade him, to agree to meet with him, etc. It may be possible to negotiate some concessions. And at least he expects that there will be no such disrespect as at the Samarkand summit, where every second leader was demonstrably late for a meeting with him.

It is important for Ukraine the movement in the Black Sea will not stop. However, the best option is to preserve the agreement on the grain corridor, at least in its current form, until the final de-occupation of the Black Sea.

Written by Sergiy Sydorenko,
"European Pravda" editor