China has a serious influence on the Kremlin, which is becoming more dependent on it.

In his op-ed The Ally Putin Fears: How China Could Thwart Russia’s Aggression, Head of the New Geopolitics Research Network Asian-Pacific Region Section Yuriy Poita insists that Kyiv and the West must force China to put pressure on the Kremlin. 

Beijing’s view of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine has been opaque all along. On the one hand, China recognizes Ukraine’s official borders, publicly supporting its sovereignty and territorial integrity. On the other, it votes against Ukrainian resolutions in the United Nations General Assembly, does not publicly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and strengthens its strategic partnership with Moscow.

Ukraine’s chief concern, therefore, is that Russia and China might forge a military alliance, especially since they recently issued a joint statement, in which China shares Russia’s "rational concerns" and condemns "NATO’s expansion to the East."

Although this fear is understandable, the chance of Russia and China creating a military alliance is low. More so since China is unwilling to limit its foreign policy options.

While the joint statement undoubtedly contains many negative statements for Ukraine, it is still protocol-like, meaning that it does not have practical consequences for Ukraine. 

Besides, the war is gradually making China, which has found itself in a difficult position, leave its comfort zone. 

Although Russia and China have voiced the desire "to build peace together" and maintain friendly relations, China’s key priority is to develop its cooperation with the West, which is a huge market providing cutting-edge technology.

Besides, China, which has always valued international law, does not know how to react to Russia’s recognition of the rogue republics and the war. Both are blatant violations of international law and, therefore, Beijing can neither condemn nor support Russia’s actions. 

All in all, China values its relations with Russia, especially due to its strategic competition with the USA, meaning that it will either not oppose Russia’s actions or continue to make vague statements. 

However, if China wants to keep its weight in Europe, it must distance itself from Russia. Given that Beijing does not wish to taint its reputation in the international area, there is a chance, although a slim one, that it will shift its stance. 

To do that, the diplomats, experts, and media must clearly articulate that Russia’s aggressive policy toward Ukraine harms China, impacting its economy, politics, and reputation. 

They must also use the different international and expert platforms to prove that China can change Russia’s behavior, forcing it to de-escalate. 

Read more in Yuriy Poita’s op-ed in Ukrainian The Ally Putin Fears: How China Could Thwart Russia’s Aggression.