How to Convince Biden to Increase Military Aid to Ukraine

Thursday, 21 July 2022

Ukrainian-American relations have developed a severe immunity to political revelations in both countries in recent years. They will also survive the current scandal with congresswoman Victoria Spartz.

Since Ukraine's victory in the war largely depends on U.S. assistance, it is worth finding out what is happening in the broader context of the war with Russia.

Volodymyr Zelensky did not have a "honeymoon" with the United States, which is usual for a newly elected democratic government - a period when the parties trust each other no matter what.

Joe Biden began his presidency with a demonstrative distancing from Ukraine. The new U.S. president had an opinion that Ukraine did not comply with Trump's demands regarding the compromising material on Biden, not because Zelensky did not want it, but, they say because they simply did not have enough time in Kyiv.

Zelensky and Biden had phone contact only in April 2021 since Russia accumulated its troops near the borders of Ukraine.

The first (and only so far) meeting of the two presidents near the White House on August 31, 2021, somewhat leveled the situation. But they failed to establish a relationship focused on security - due to a lack of trust.

Washington saw that Kyiv was not taking their warnings seriously. In Kyiv, on the other hand, the Americans were suspected of exaggerating the threat.

The full-scale war did not solve but disguised the problems.

Concerns about Andrii Yermak and especially his deputy Oleh Tatarov did not disappear.

In general, the bilateral dialogue has become mainly a dialogue about weapons.

And in mid-April 2022, the USA overcame an important psychological barrier - sent to Ukraine its first heavy weapons.

Two other psychological barriers remain for the U.S.: the supply of fighter jets and Western-style tanks.

The Americans managed to "transform" offensive weapons into defensive ones simply by limiting the number. The weapons provided by the USA are not enough to start actively recapturing the occupied territories. Therefore, they are not enough for the Ukrainian victory.

"The White House is making sure that Putin's loss is not very visible," one famous American diplomat described the current strategy.

On the other hand, the Biden administration must constantly keep in mind the American internal political context before the midterm election in November, as well as the 2024 presidential election.

Biden expected the war and sanctions would provoke a price upswing, but he did not see it that noticeable.

We should clarify that Washington has been discussing the proper oversight of Ukraine's aid since at least May. However, it reached Ukraine only in July - after the letter by Congresswoman Victoria Spartz.

In fact, it is not Ukraine that has to solve many issues but the USA itself.

Biden established a State Department-Pentagon-USAID task force to oversee aid to Ukraine and failed to nominate a Department of State inspector general.

There is also some tension between the Pentagon and Congress over the aid oversight since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion.

The public campaign by Victoria Spartz will be useful to politicians who do not want to back Ukraine. She gave carte blanche to Trumpists to "break" support for Ukraine.

Instead of one request by a congresswoman, which stayed mainly unseen in Washington, Kyiv received a whole campaign of allegations due to failed communication.

Ukraine should finally understand that bipartisan support in the U.S. has eroded. Ukraine should clearly and systematically break the narratives of America First'ers and progressive democrats.

And it can simply focus on two vital matters.

First, Ukraine really deserves the assistance the USA provides.

Second, helping Ukraine is in the interests of the USA itself: for now, they are paying just with money, but if Putin's aggression goes on, they will also pay with human lives.

The "measured assistance" strategy in response to a full-scale war, which Washington still professes, should be reviewed today. This must be done before domestic political challenges in the U.S., which should manifest in 2023-2024.

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