The Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom predicts the weather will worsen for moving around the city of Bakhmut, which will probably give an advantage to Ukrainian defenders. 

As Ukrainian forces continue to defend Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, rising temperatures are now creating the muddy conditions known in Ukrainian as ‘bezdorizhzhia’, limiting cross country movement (CCM), claims the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom.

Poor CCM typically provides some military advantage to defending forces.

Daytime soil temperatures have risen and are now largely above freezing. As experienced since mid-February 2023, overnight freeze and daytime thaw remains likely until next week.

Forecast warmer than average conditions for the remainder of winter and spring will further reduce CCM.

"It is almost certain that by late March, CCM will be at its worst following the final thaw. This will add further friction to ground operations and hamper the off-road movement of heavier armoured vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector." 

General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, predicted in February that Ukrainian forces would not surrender Bakhmut.